Market Flash of December 16, 2025

In this episode:

• We are approaching the end of an extraordinary year, while looking ahead to a 2026 that is likely to be more volatile but potentially richer in opportunities, provided portfolios are managed with a more dynamic and flexible approach.
• After one of the worst starts on record, with the S&P 500 down nearly 15% by early April, the market staged an exceptional rebound: eight consecutive months of gains and a recovery of around 37%, a move historically seen almost only after deep bear markets.
• The rally was overwhelmingly driven by artificial intelligence: roughly 80% of the upside came from just 73 stocks, with Nvidia, Broadcom and Google alone contributing more than all non-AI sectors combined, highlighting an unprecedented level of concentration.
• Commodities have been among the top-performing asset classes of 2025, but deep fractures are emerging between physical and paper markets, driven by geopolitics, supply concentration and strategic stockpiling by central banks.

In a world where geography matters more than geology, politics more than price, and physical assets more than derivatives, these shifts represent a crucial input for strategic asset allocation heading into 2026. For more insights, listen to the latest episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.