In this episode of A Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky sits down with Brent Buchanan, president of Cygnal Polling, to break down an exclusive new survey on the political landscape heading into the midterm elections. How do today’s numbers compare to the 2018 midterms—and what do they reveal about where the electorate is heading?

Buchanan walks through the latest generic ballot data showing Democrats with a narrow lead, why the margin is far smaller than the Democratic advantage at this stage in 2018, and how shifts among college-educated and non-college voters could shape key suburban House races. They also discuss Donald Trump’s current favorability numbers, the concept of Trump’s political “floor,” and why presidential approval ratings no longer predict election outcomes the way they once did.

The conversation dives into the issues driving voters today, including why “threats to democracy” ranks high in polling, how voters actually feel about the economy and inflation, and which party Americans trust more on immigration and border security.

EMAIL RYAN

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this short breaking update, Ryan reacts to late-night news that Rep. Tony Gonzales has dropped out of the runoff and will not seek reelection in Texas’s 23rd Congressional District.

Ryan explains why the update was necessary after the Friday episode, which was recorded just hours before Gonzales’ announcement. He breaks down the political pressure surrounding the race, the controversies that defined Gonzales’ tenure, and why the congressman likely chose to step aside rather than face a potential landslide defeat.

Ryan also looks at what this means for the future of the district, the role conservative voters played in forcing the issue, and what comes next for Republican nominee Brandon Herrera.

This quick bonus update episode gives listeners the latest context behind one of the most talked-about primary battles in Texas politics.

EMAIL RYAN

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of A Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky breaks down the numbers behind the Texas primary elections and why the media narrative about what happened doesn’t match the data.

Ryan dives into the surprisingly strong showing from Senator John Cornyn, who led Attorney General Ken Paxton despite being massively outspent in polling expectations and facing intense grassroots criticism. What do the vote totals, spending gaps, and regional turnout actually reveal about the future of Texas Republican politics—and why might this race signal a coming leadership shakeup in the Lone Star State?

He also analyzes the shocking defeat of Congressman Dan Crenshaw, who lost his primary despite outspending his opponent 9-to-1. Ryan explains why the loss had less to do with national narratives and more to do with candidate popularity, donor sentiment, and grassroots backlash.

Then Ryan turns to the Democratic side, where state Rep. James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a high-profile primary. As the media begins portraying Talarico as a potential Democrat who could flip Texas, Ryan examines his record, policy positions, and the political strategy behind the party’s attempt to build the next national progressive star.

Along the way, Ryan explores:

The real numbers behind Cornyn vs. Paxton and why polling missed the mark

Why Crenshaw’s defeat shocked Washington but not Texas insiders

The controversy surrounding Rep. Tony Gonzales and his upcoming runoff

The looming power vacuum in Texas GOP leadership over the next decade

Why Democrats are betting big on James Talarico What the results mean for 2026 midterms and the future of Texas politics

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky breaks down the numbers behind the U.S. strike on Iran—cutting through the chaos, viral clips, and partisan narratives to explain what actually happened and how Americans are reacting.

Ryan walks through the timeline that led to Operation Epic Fury, including months of failed negotiations with Iran over ballistic missiles, the intelligence assessments shaping the White House decision, and the strategic pressure coming from allies in the Middle East. He also analyzes the messaging battle surrounding the conflict, including how a viral clip from Secretary of State Marco Rubio fueled claims that the United States entered the war because of Israel.

Most importantly, Ryan dives into the polling data—from Reuters/Ipsos, CNN, YouGov, and the Washington Post—to reveal what Americans, Republicans, and Democrats really think about the strikes. Are Trump voters united? How much opposition exists inside the GOP? And could the war reshape the political landscape heading into the next election cycle?

Ryan also shares his own candid perspective on the risks of escalation, the challenge of regime change from the air, and why public opinion could become one of the biggest political variables in the conflict.

EMAIL RYAN

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How powerful are the cartels really—and what do the numbers reveal about their reach, money, and influence?

On this episode of A Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky is joined by Border Hawk White House correspondent Wid Lyman for a deep dive into the rapidly evolving cartel landscape following the assassination of a top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

They break down the real numbers behind cartel operations, including:

The scale of cartel presence across 40+ countries

How fentanyl transformed cartel profits into a multi-billion-dollar empire

The shocking rise in violence across 15 Mexican states after the hit

The hidden role of “legitimate” U.S. businesses in cartel money laundering

Why cartel leaders with U.S. ties could reshape operations going forward

How border crackdowns are impacting cartel revenue—and what comes next

Plus, they explore whether Latin America’s political shift toward tougher crime policies could finally limit cartel power—or simply force cartels to adapt.

This episode uncovers the data, strategy, and reality behind one of the most dangerous criminal networks in the world—and why it matters for America’s border, economy, and national security.

EMAIL RYAN

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, Ryan sits down with CNN contributor and Salem Radio host Scott Jennings for a sharp, unfiltered breakdown of President Trump’s State of the Union—and the political fallout that followed.

Jennings highlights what he calls the defining moment of the speech: when President Trump challenged Congress to stand up for the American people—and Democrats refused. Was this a turning point heading into the 2026 midterms?

The conversation dives deep into the issues shaping the political battlefield right now:

• Why Trump’s disciplined messaging and policy specifics could reshape the GOP’s midterm strategy

• How immigration remains Trump’s strongest issue—and a major vulnerability for Democrats

• The growing divide between Republican and Democratic voter priorities

• Whether Democrats are doubling down on positions that alienate mainstream voters

• The role of media narratives, viral moments, and political theater in shaping public perception

Jennings also shares behind-the-scenes insights from his appearances on CNN, revealing the most shocking moments he’s witnessed on live television—and what they say about today’s political climate.

If you want to understand the messaging war heading into 2026, the immigration debate, and why this State of the Union could have lasting political consequences, this is a must-listen episode.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of A Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky breaks down a rapidly escalating political scandal involving Congressman Tony Gonzales, including newly revealed text messages, allegations of misconduct, and growing calls from within his own party to step aside.

Ryan examines the power dynamics, ethical questions, and political consequences surrounding the controversy—and what it means for voters, the GOP, and the upcoming election cycle.

Then, we shift to a critical issue shaping the future: artificial intelligence and job security. New polling data reveals that 1 in 3 Americans fear AI could replace their jobs, while politicians scramble to respond. Are Democrats gaining an edge on AI policy? Are Republicans missing the moment?

Plus, insights into:

The growing populist backlash against AI

How 2028 candidates are repositioning on tech regulation

Why this issue could become the next major political divide

Finally, Ryan answers listener questions in the Ask Me Anything segment, including a deep dive into the ongoing controversy surrounding Wendy Williams and conservatorship laws.

EMAIL RYAN

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this episode of A Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky breaks down the latest polling data shaking up the political landscape—and exposing deep divisions within the Democratic coalition and the broader American public. Drawing on a national survey of over 3,000 registered voters, Ryan walks through the numbers on key transgender-related policies, including youth medical treatments, school sports participation, and bathroom access laws.

The data tells a striking story: while Republican voters remain largely unified, Democratic voters are increasingly split—raising serious questions about messaging, priorities, and the future of the culture war. Ryan explores why public opinion appears to be shifting, how activists and media figures are responding to inconvenient data, and what this means for upcoming elections.

Plus, Ryan offers a strategic warning to Republicans: even when the numbers are on your side, winning campaigns require more than a single issue. From polling insights to political strategy, this episode delivers a data-driven look at one of the most contentious debates in America today.

EMAIL RYAN

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.