In this episode of A Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky sits down with Brent Buchanan, president of Cygnal Polling, to break down an exclusive new survey on the political landscape heading into the midterm elections. How do today’s numbers compare to the 2018 midterms—and what do they reveal about where the electorate is heading?

Buchanan walks through the latest generic ballot data showing Democrats with a narrow lead, why the margin is far smaller than the Democratic advantage at this stage in 2018, and how shifts among college-educated and non-college voters could shape key suburban House races. They also discuss Donald Trump’s current favorability numbers, the concept of Trump’s political “floor,” and why presidential approval ratings no longer predict election outcomes the way they once did.

The conversation dives into the issues driving voters today, including why “threats to democracy” ranks high in polling, how voters actually feel about the economy and inflation, and which party Americans trust more on immigration and border security.

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In this short breaking update, Ryan reacts to late-night news that Rep. Tony Gonzales has dropped out of the runoff and will not seek reelection in Texas’s 23rd Congressional District.

Ryan explains why the update was necessary after the Friday episode, which was recorded just hours before Gonzales’ announcement. He breaks down the political pressure surrounding the race, the controversies that defined Gonzales’ tenure, and why the congressman likely chose to step aside rather than face a potential landslide defeat.

Ryan also looks at what this means for the future of the district, the role conservative voters played in forcing the issue, and what comes next for Republican nominee Brandon Herrera.

This quick bonus update episode gives listeners the latest context behind one of the most talked-about primary battles in Texas politics.

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In this episode of A Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky breaks down the numbers behind the Texas primary elections and why the media narrative about what happened doesn’t match the data.

Ryan dives into the surprisingly strong showing from Senator John Cornyn, who led Attorney General Ken Paxton despite being massively outspent in polling expectations and facing intense grassroots criticism. What do the vote totals, spending gaps, and regional turnout actually reveal about the future of Texas Republican politics—and why might this race signal a coming leadership shakeup in the Lone Star State?

He also analyzes the shocking defeat of Congressman Dan Crenshaw, who lost his primary despite outspending his opponent 9-to-1. Ryan explains why the loss had less to do with national narratives and more to do with candidate popularity, donor sentiment, and grassroots backlash.

Then Ryan turns to the Democratic side, where state Rep. James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a high-profile primary. As the media begins portraying Talarico as a potential Democrat who could flip Texas, Ryan examines his record, policy positions, and the political strategy behind the party’s attempt to build the next national progressive star.

Along the way, Ryan explores:

The real numbers behind Cornyn vs. Paxton and why polling missed the mark

Why Crenshaw’s defeat shocked Washington but not Texas insiders

The controversy surrounding Rep. Tony Gonzales and his upcoming runoff

The looming power vacuum in Texas GOP leadership over the next decade

Why Democrats are betting big on James Talarico What the results mean for 2026 midterms and the future of Texas politics

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