Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello!

(01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap

(02:15) - Trump War Quotes

(02:54) - Menu Metaphor

(04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity

(07:20) - Fire and Fury Tweet

(09:50) - Punitive Campaign Logic

(12:35) - Iran Succession Shock

(14:43) - Attack Data and B52s

(16:44) - Red Sea vs Hormuz

(20:17) - Why Hormuz Matters

(24:25) - Vietnam and Tanker Risk

(27:06) - Regime Instability Scenario

(30:37) - Trump and Market Downside

(32:50) - Basketball Geopolitics Analogy

(36:56) - Shaq Strategy Not Nation Building

(38:09) - Ditching the Hormuz Dependency

(40:31) - China Taiwan and Energy Timelines

(41:24) - Why Oil Is Hard to Replace

(43:42) - Dune Metaphor Breaks Down

(45:13) - Middle East Oil Still Matters

(47:09) - India China Pressure on Iran

(51:46) - Stock Versus Flow Reality Check

(53:58) - Global Naval Coalition Scenario

(59:21) - Is Iran Backing Down

(01:05:41) - Iraq Militias and Iran Isolation

(01:08:54) - Final Thoughts Taco Skit

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces a global recession.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:47) - Oval Office Firings

(01:29) - Is This Becoming Regional War

(05:04) - Closing Hormuz Drones Threat

(08:57) - Iran Pain Threshold And Escalation

(12:37) - Azerbaijan Kurds Regime Change Signals

(13:44) - Why Iran Hits Everyone

(19:53) - Why Trump Shifted On Iran

(23:38) - Israel Influence Conspiracy Talk

(27:07) - America Heat Check And Oil Shock

(34:37) - Sparta Versus Athens Worldview

(38:07) - Deep State Distraction Theory

(39:36) - Strait of Hormuz Pain Threshold

(41:43) - Red Lines for Escalation

(44:39) - Iraq and Hezbollah Wildcards

(46:25) - Why America Reveres the Military

(51:54) - Let Them Drink Bleach Scenario

(56:47) - April 5 Base Case Forecasts

(01:03:50) - Polling and Midterm Pressure

(01:08:52) - Eurotrip Meme Detour

(01:11:14) - Oil Food Prices Final Warning

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro