Proving History

Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus

De: Richard Carrier

Narrado por: Richard Carrier

Anyone with an interest in historical methods, how historical knowledge can be justified, new applications of Bayes's Theorem, or the study of the historical Jesus will find this book to be essential reading. Almost all experts agree that the Jesus of the Bible is a composite of myth, legend, and some historical evidence. So what can we know about the real Jesus? For more than 150 years, scholars have attempted to answer this question.

Unfortunately, the quest for the historical Jesus has produced as many different images of the original Jesus as scholars who have studied the subject. The result is a confused mass of disparate opinions with no consensus view of what actually happened at the dawn of Christianity. And this uncertainty is not unique to the historical study of Jesus. The problems related to establishing the reliability of historical criteria apply equally to any historical analysis of the persons and events that have shaped our lives and the beliefs we hold dear.

This in-depth discussion of New Testament scholarship and the challenges of history as a whole proposes Bayes's Theorem, which deals with probabilities under conditions of uncertainty, as a solution to the problem of establishing reliable historical criteria. The author demonstrates that valid historical methods - not only in the study of Christian origins but in any historical study - can be described by, and reduced to, the logic of Bayes's Theorem. Conversely, he argues that any method that cannot be reduced to this theorem is invalid and should be abandoned.

Writing with thoroughness and clarity, the author explains Bayes's Theorem in terms that are easily understandable to professional historians and laypeople alike, employing nothing more than well-known primary school math. He then explores precisely how the theorem can be applied to history and addresses numerous challenges to and criticisms of its use in testing or justifying the conclusions that historians make about the important persons and events of the past. The traditional and established methods of historians are analyzed using the theorem, as well as all the major "historicity criteria" employed in the latest quest to establish the historicity of Jesus. The author demonstrates not only the deficiencies of these approaches but also ways to rehabilitate them using Bayes's Theorem.

©2012 Richard C. Carrier (P)2014 Pitchstone Publishing

awesome!

Be patient. Reread to understand these concepts if necessary. I'll listen to this several times.

Excellent work!

Clearly explained, well spoken, can't wait to read the next volume. 99.9% probable you will love it.

Richard Carrier Does It Again

Carrier has delivered another worthy entry into the historical Jesus studies library, a must listen for anyone interested in the topic. While other scholars regurgitate old scholarship, Carrier makes an original deep-dive into not only the Greek scriptures but the field of history itself. This work is invaluable for the field, if they will only read it.

This should be required reading in history classes

Can’t argue with math. This formally explains how we intuitively reason to dumb people like me.

No leap of faith required

Richard Carrier's book is more about the application of Bayes's Theorem to history in general than it is about the historical Jesus specifically. No doubt, many people are put off by the idea of using mathematics to separate what is likely true about the past from what is not, but what is our knowledge of things past if it is not fundamentally uncertain? Personally, I like Carrier's approach. It gives a consistent formality and structured process to determining what most likely actually happened, given all of our evidence, while taking into account the presence of uncertainty. Carrier says over and over again that it will not work if historians are not honest with themselves and with their colleagues. I suspect that at the root of opposition to this approach is that its use requires facing down our biases, never an easy thing to do.

I am neither a historian nor a mathematician. This book was not easy for me to plow through, but it was worth the effort. My white board is covered with forulae that I'll be thinking about some time to come. I look forward to Carrier's next book.

The reader did a very good job, in spite of the fact that a lot of the text was equations and formulae.

Great subject to much math.

I enjoyed the authors other books more than this offering. To much math for me personaly. Which was as advertised, so can't complain. Only one book to go now before I have listened to his whole collection. Expanded my knowledge which is the reason I listened.

Brilliant!

Richard C. Carrier has once again constructed a well argued case - this time, for the use of Bayesian statistics in evaluating historical claims. He does this as a necessary introduction to his next book in which he will address the veracity of claims and historicity of some guy - Jesus of Nazareth.

This book was narrated by the author. To my ears, his reading speed is about 1.5x. That, Andy my new detail in which the subject is treated leads me to recommend that the listener also get the text of the book in some format. The reader will want to take notes - lots and lots of notes.

Worth the Challenge

This is a great intro to Bayes's Theorem, although for me the audio version made it pretty challenging to keep up with the pace of the narrator while trying to create a mental picture of the theorem and it's various iterations given for different applications. I did stick with it though and am glad I did. I'll be buying a hard copy as well. Looking forward to to ear-reading the 2nd volume On the Historicity of Jesus.

This is a difficulty book to listen

This is a difficulty book to listen. It is a lot better to read. As a book is great!

A good defence of bayes theeorem

Another easy to follow and well researched book, well performed and should be interesting for any reader of history