How to Expect the Unexpected

The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art of Knowing When Not To

By: Kit Yates

Narrated by: Kit Yates

Length: 11 hrs and 42 mins

Publisher's summary

A “vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide” (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right

How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions—and how we can use it to our advantage.

From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for listeners to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by.

This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.

©2023 Kit Yates (P)2023 Basic Books

Critic reviews

“In this smart study… The survey of the mind’s biases intrigues, and the author excels at demonstrating their real-world effects. … It’s a safe bet that readers will take to this.”—Publishers Weekly

“Yates’ tour of the predictions business covers much interesting ground, which he tills with an entertaining sense of humor.”—Kirkus

“Kit Yates presents math as it should be taught to everyone: accessible, fun, stimulating, and deeply relevant to our lives. Spend some time with this book and you're likely to make better judgements and decisions, to see through the charlatans and snake-oil salespeople—and perhaps even to fool yourself a little less.”—Philip Ball, author of the award-winning Critical Mass