Kremlinology has made its way east as analysts try to make sense of dramatic PLA purges under Xi Jinping. The CCP regime appears to be clearing house, but what does it all mean? Should there be a reconsideration of a Taiwan contingency for China? Is China even equipped to make threats against its neighbors? At a moment of global turbulence, why reduce military expertise? What does it all mean for the United States? Is Xi going the way of Stalin? So many questions; join us for the answers.

John Garnaut is the founder of Garnaut Global, where he provides strategic advice and risk management services to global finance and corporate clients as an authority on Chinese elite politics and Chinese Communist Party interference. John was previously Fairfax's China correspondent and Asia-Pacific Editor, Senior Advisor to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, and Principal Advisor at the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, where he led the government's analysis and policy response to authoritarian interference. He regularly presents to departments and agencies in Australia and the United States and serves as a Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

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With regime change brewing in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, and the Russian war of attrition still marching on, Cold War déjà vu shapes our understanding of what happens when regimes do fall and offers a hopeful conclusion. Former Soviet states that have joined the EU have experienced an average tenfold increase in GDP since 1990, while Russia and its non-EU neighbors have grown only fourfold. Like the stark contrast of the Berlin Wall, if Ukraine is free to continue to prosper economically, people in Russia’s border regions will begin to work out that the problem isn’t NATO, the problem isn’t ideology, the problem is the failure of the system in Russia to deliver. And in addition to the huge costs of the war already waged, that’s something Putin cannot afford. So, will Putin try to wait it out? What choices does he have to avoid failure? We asked an investment banker for his theory and the numbers are enlightening…

Michael Tory is a co-founder and Chairman of the financial advisory firm Ondra Partners. Tory is also an outspoken advocate for and supports several NGO efforts in Ukraine. Previously, he served as head of UK investment banking for Lehman Brothers Inc. and has been a Senior UK investment banker of Lehman Brothers Holdings. Michael previously served as Morgan Stanley’s head of investment banking in the UK and worked in their New York office for over a decade. Tory is also principal of Turning the Page, which develops and publishes ideas for rebuilding the UK’s domestic capital markets and savings systems.

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The so-called “pro-Israel lobby” in Washington, D.C., has long been a target for antisemites and for fringe voices on both sides of the aisle. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, support for Israel in the United States is not a predominantly Jewish cause. Once a Democratic hallmark, its strongest base today is Evangelical Christians, whose theology and values profoundly shape their political advocacy for the Jewish people and their homeland. Yet antisemitism and hostility toward Israel persist, with October 7th exposing eroded support across the political spectrum. What ideology drives these attitudes? How can the generational divide over Israel be bridged? And what do these trends reveal about America’s values?

Ralph Reed is the founder and chairman of the Faith & Freedom Coalition and is the chairman and CEO of Century Strategies, a public relations and public affairs firm. Prior to founding the Faith & Freedom Coalition, Ralph served as Executive Director of the Christian Coalition where he built one of the most effective public policy organizations. Reed also served as a senior advisor to the 2000 and 2004 Bush-Cheney presidential campaigns and was chairman of the Southeast Region for Bush-Cheney 2004. As chairman of the Georgia Republican Party, he helped elect the first Republican Governor and third U.S. Senator since Reconstruction. Reed has worked on seven presidential campaigns and has advised 88 campaigns for U.S. Senate, Governor, and Congress across 24 states. He is the best-selling author and editor of seven books, including his latest novel, Awakening.

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The world is watching as protests rage across Iran amid nationwide internet blackouts, state-sponsored propaganda, and lethal security force crackdowns. Despite reports suggesting that hundreds, possibly thousands, have been killed at the time of this writing, Iranians are taking their future in their hands with extraordinary courage. For Tehran, what makes this wave of unrest different from those before it? Should civil war breakout, will we finally see a free Iran? Will President Trump enforce the red line he has drawn for the regime, and if so, what military options exist without deploying boots on the ground? Will President Trump ignore the eleventh-hour, desperate promises of diplomacy from Islamist leaders? He’ll need to if he intends to continue his administration’s legacy of freedom.

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. He also currently serves as director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics.

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For many Americans, Operation Absolute Resolve, which brought Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro to trial in New York, was an unexpected New Year’s surprise. For others who have endured the corruption of his regime and watched as American adversaries have turned Venezuela and Cuba into platforms for illicit investment, arms trafficking, and narcotics, it is a long-awaited moment of vindication. It appears Chávez’s henchmen are finally facing the music. But why now? Our guest, Roger Noriega, cites institutional issues within the U.S. government and severe counterintelligence failures of the past, obstacles he argues have been overcome under Marco Rubio’s leadership and with President Trump’s resolve. So, what’s next? Will the opposition win a democratic election? And what is the Cuban play here? Could their regime be at risk?

Roger Noriega is the founder and managing director of the consultant firm, Vision Americas LLC, which has teams in Washington and Bogotá. Ambassador (ret.) Roger F. Noriega has more than three decades of public policy experience focusing on U.S. interests in the Western Hemisphere. After a 10-year career on Capitol Hill with Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs, he was appointed by President George W. Bush to senior State Department posts including Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere affairs and a U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States. He also coordinated the American Enterprise Institute's program on Latin America as a visiting Fellow for 15 years.

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It is officially 2026, which means America is turning 250 this year. Our question on this semiquincentennial looks back to America’s founding and the constitutional framework that gave birth to our nation. America is the only nation founded not on blood or soil, but on a creed. Established by the Declaration of Independence, this creed, now more than ever, should be viewed through Jefferson’s words as a unifying force in our country as we continue to confront the challenges of a multicultural society. Both sides of the aisle have factions that seek to blame American democracy for our difficulties. Still, Professor Wood assures us that Americans are better positioned than any other people to mitigate these challenges because of our creedal identity. So what is the source of our strength? Is civic education the key to protecting our ideals? And how important are a free society and assimilation in preserving them?

Gordon Wood is a renowned and highly awarded historian and Professor of History Emeritus at Brown University. He is the author of the Creation of the American Republic which won the Bancroft Prize and the John H. Dunning Prize, and The Radicalism of the American Revolution, which won the Pulitzer Prize for History and the Ralph Waldo Emerson Prize, among many other written works. In 2011 he was awarded a National Humanities Medal by President Obama and the Churchill Bell by Colonial Williamsburg. He is largely regarded as a leading scholar of Early American history, known specifically for his masterful prose and transformative understanding of true radicalism of the American Revolution. The American Enterprise Institute most recently awarded him the Irving Kristol Award.

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While we celebrate the remarkable achievement of 250 years of the US military being a bulwark of democracy, it is important to understand the intentionally laid foundations on which America’s civil military relations tradition rests. Military deference to civilian authority and the legislature is a principle pioneered and championed by General George Washington, setting a powerful precedent for commanding officers to follow… with some instructive exceptions. As we look toward the New Year, and wearily at the political posturing of some military leaders, Kori Schake reminds us of a central theme from her new book, The State and the Soldier (Polity, 2025): “We want a military that's not partisan. We want a military that is subordinate to whatever lunatics the American public see fit to put into high office.” How are military leaders inherently political? How do we avoid forcing them to make partisan choices? And, as we have discussed all year, why does Congress refuse to exercise the powers it has, even in this realm?

Kori Schake is a senior fellow and the Director of Foreign and Defense Policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Before joining AEI, Dr. Schake was the deputy director-general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. She has had a distinguished career in government, working at the US State Department, the US Department of Defense, and the National Security Council at the White House. She was also senior policy advisor on the 2008 McCain campaign. She has taught at Stanford, West Point, Johns Hopkins, and the University of Maryland. Dr. Schake is the author of 5 books, with her newest titled “The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States.”

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The Reagan National Defense Survey has again illuminated the MAGA world: MAGA Republicans are not isolationists, nor are the majority of Americans. Despite what those in Washington assert Americans believe, the latest polling reveals that 64 percent of Americans support U.S. leadership on the world stage, with eight in ten self-identified MAGA Republicans driving that figure. So why do we see this dissonance on the Right? Who gets to speak for “America First,” and what does it really mean? Why are figures within Trump’s ranks convincing him that his base opposes intervention and a strong foreign policy? The latest polling reminds us that the American people know who our enemies are, and they are telling us how they want to deal with them. Who’s going to listen?

Roger Zakheim serves as the Washington Director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute. He previously practiced law at Covington & Burling LLP where he led the firm’s Public Policy and Government Affairs practice group. Before joining Covington, he was General Counsel and Deputy Staff Director of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee. Mr. Zakheim also served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense where he supported the department’s policies and programs related to Iraq and Afghanistan coalition affairs. Mr. Zakheim also currently serves on the Board of Directors of the United States Institute of Peace and is a Commissioner on the Congressional Commission on the National Defense Strategy of the United States.

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