Jacob Shapiro sits down with Facundo Robles, Program Coordinator at the Wilson Center’s Latin America Program, for a wide-ranging conversation on how the Israel-Iran conflict intersects with Latin America’s geopolitical and economic realities. They unpack why Latin America remains relatively stable amid global volatility, and how rising oil, fertilizer, and agricultural prices might impact countries like Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. The conversation weaves through U.S.-China competition, Argentina’s foreign policy under Milei, and Venezuela’s provocative posturing.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(04:03) - Impact of Israel-Iran War on Latin America

(05:50) - Regional Stability and Conflicts in Latin America

(12:26) - Country-Specific Analysis: Mexico

(18:17) - Country-Specific Analysis: Argentina

(42:40) - Country-Specific Analysis: Venezuela

(45:42) - Conclusion

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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In this episode, Jacob speaks with Japan analyst Tobias Harris to unpack rising tensions in U.S.-Japan trade relations amid the Trump administration’s tariff blitz. They explore how Japan—historically a close U.S. ally—is reacting to unclear demands, internal U.S. policy chaos, and the potential collapse of trust in American economic leadership. Tobias breaks down the limits of personal diplomacy, the legacy of Shinzo Abe, and why Japan is quietly building plan B trade alliances. They also cover Japan-China relations, a political shift in South Korea, and how domestic rice prices could determine Prime Minister Ishiba’s fate. Global stakes, local politics—fully intertwined.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:14) - Japan-US Trade Relations

(04:00) - Internal US Negotiation Issues

(09:39) - Japan's Strategic Dilemmas

(14:09) - Hypotheticals and Future Scenarios

(18:50) - Impact of Abe's Relationship with Trump

(24:10) - Japanese Relations with China

(25:25) - Japan's Efforts to Repair Relations

(28:31) - South Korea's New Leadership

(29:57) - Challenges in Japan-South Korea Relations

(36:13) - Japanese Domestic Politics

(40:50) - The Importance of Rice in Japanese Politics

(46:48) - Growing Interest in Japan

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Referenced in the Show:

Tobais' SubStack - https://observingjapan.substack.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob Shapiro is joined by Middle East expert Kamran Bokhari to analyze the rapidly unfolding Israeli military strikes on Iran. They discuss the strategic implications of Israel’s targeted attacks on IRGC leadership, the potential for regime instability in Tehran, and the calculus behind Washington’s response. Bokhari introduces the concept of “evolutionary regime change” and outlines scenarios ranging from internal coups to regional realignment. Together, they explore whether Israel’s aim is nuclear deterrence or regime collapse, and what options remain for an Iranian response. It’s a fast-moving, high-stakes conversation on Middle Eastern geopolitics.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(02:09) - Initial Reactions to Recent Events

(04:21) - Analyzing Israel's Strategy

(08:11) - Potential Outcomes and Scenarios

(27:01) - Regional Reactions and Implications

(32:08) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob Shapiro speaks with Iranian security expert Hamidreza Azizi to unpack Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran. They explore the strategic implications of Israel’s multi-phase assault, including the assassination of top IRGC commanders, the targeting of nuclear and missile infrastructure, and the collapse of Iran’s proxy network. Azizi outlines Iran’s limited options—from potential retaliation to a pivot toward nuclear armament—and discusses the psychological warfare at play. With U.S. involvement uncertain and regional dynamics shifting, this conversation offers a critical framework for understanding one of the most volatile escalations in the Middle East in recent memory.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(00:49) - Initial Reactions to Recent Events

(03:33) - Iran's Military and Strategic Response

(09:50) - Role of Proxies and US Involvement

(18:01) - Potential Outcomes and Strategic Implications

(27:42) - Conclusion and Farewell

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob and Rob respond to listener feedback about negativity by focusing on positive trends, including declining violent crime and drug overdose rates in the U.S. They then dive into a high-level exploration of stablecoins—what they are, why they matter, and the potential risks and geopolitical implications of their rise. They compare the U.S. approach to stablecoins with the digital currency strategies of China and the EU, unpack the difference between innovation and systemic risk, and ask whether the erosion of trust in financial systems is worth the trade-off. A thoughtful, wide-ranging conversation on money, power, and volatility.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:44) - Positive Trends in Crime and Health

(09:58) - The Volatility Spiral and Technological Change

(16:06) - Introduction to Stable Coins

(22:36) - Regulation and Risks of Stable Coins

(27:11) - Global Perspectives on Stable Coins

(35:15) - Innovation in Payment Systems

(35:28) - Central Bank Digital Currencies vs. Stablecoins

(36:10) - Ideological Differences in Digital Currencies

(36:24) - Stablecoins: Private Money and Regulation

(37:17) - European Digital Euro Approach

(39:28) - US Legislation on Stablecoins

(41:36) - Risks and Regulations of Stablecoins

(56:25) - International Perspectives on Digital Currencies

(01:00:40) - Geopolitical Implications of Digital Currencies

(01:12:42) - Conclusion and Future Discussions

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob welcomes Sim Tack, a military analyst at Force Analysis, to break down the shifting battlefield dynamics in Ukraine. Together, they unpack Ukraine’s evolving tactics, Russia’s slow but grinding advances, and the logistical and manpower challenges both sides face. Jacob pushes for a bigger picture: what this phase of the war tells us about the future of U.S. involvement, Europe’s strategic posture, and why the world should be watching Eastern Ukraine more closely. Sim offers clarity without sensationalism, grounding the conversation in facts, maps, and on-the-ground realities. It's a sobering, sharp look at a war still unfolding.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Update

(00:14) - Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russia

(00:52) - Analyzing the Impact of the Attack

(02:48) - Details of the Drone Strike

(07:12) - Implications for Global Military Balance

(13:11) - Comparative Analysis with Other Conflicts

(21:28) - Technological Evolution in Warfare

(26:04) - Mexican Cartels and Military Targets

(26:49) - Drone Warfare Evolution

(29:47) - Counter-Drone Technologies

(37:50) - Impact on Russian Air Power

(43:07) - Ukraine's Strategic Timing

(51:30) - Conclusion and Future Discussions

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob and Rob dive into the shifting mood in U.S. markets, as post-"Liberation Day" volatility gives way to a more constrained and uncertain fiscal landscape. They unpack the massive implications of the Trump administration’s budget bill, surging yields, and declining investor confidence. The conversation then pivots to Chinese biotech, where Jacob raises the alarm about America’s declining edge in R&D, regulation, and talent retention. What follows is a sobering look at cultural skepticism, institutional decay, and whether the U.S. still believes in scientific progress. It’s glum, sharp, and deeply thoughtful. They promise to be more cheerful next time.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(00:38) - Current State of the US Market

(02:32) - US Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook

(05:58) - Comparing US and Chinese Economic Strategies

(16:41 The Future of US and Chinese Biotech

(33:05) - Challenges in Biotech and Med Tech

(33:46) - China's Capital Allocation Advantage

(34:43) - Impact Capital and Social Investing in the US

(36:37) - Historical Context of US Social Welfare

(39:31) - US Biotech Industry's Unique Position

(41:24) - Immigration and Talent in US Research

(45:04) - Public Perception of Science and Progress

(50:37) - China's Rise and US Decline: A Balanced View

(52:13) - Local Resistance to Tech Development in the US

(57:36) - Concluding Thoughts on US-China Relations

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Madison Darbyshire makes her first appearance on the podcast to discuss the screwworm – what it is, why it’s threatening U.S. ranchers again, and why all of this could have been prevented. Come for awareness of an emergent problem; stay for the geopolitical explanation for why Texas is the ancestral home of the American cowboy.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:46) - Understanding Screwworms

(04:35) - History of Screwworm Eradication

(09:07) - Challenges and Costs of Eradication

(18:27) - Screwworm's Return and Current Issues

(23:20) - Geopolitical and Environmental Implications

(26:30) - US-Mexico Relations and Screwworm Crisis

(30:24) - Challenges in Sterilizing Fruit Flies

(30:39) - Government Involvement and Financial Hurdles

(31:37) - Comparing International Responses

(32:47) - Economic Impact on Ranchers

(36:32) - Potential Solutions and Public Awareness

(37:26) - Containment Challenges and Expert Opinions

(43:42) - Historical Context and Labor Issues

(50:42) - Geopolitical and Environmental Factors

(55:18) - Conclusion and Final ThoughtsReferenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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