Andy Constan stops by to discuss today's US macro backdrop. Importantly, this discuss was recorded on 4/24. Since then the narrative around the tax bill has gotten incrementally more stimulative. Do what you will with that information.

Bill reached out to Andy after following him for a while on Twitter. Andy appears to use Twitter to educate, inform, and journal thoughts. Hence why he was invited to the show.

As for Andy's formal background, his bio reads as follows:

Andy Constan graduated with a degree in Bioengineering from the University of Pennsylvania in 1986.

Following he spent 35 years investing and trading global equities, spending 17 years at Salomon Brothers.

Following he started honing his Macroeconomic Knowledge in 2010 working at Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard.

Since then he has worked on growing Damped Spring Advisors.

We hope you enjoy the conversation.

Bill Chen returns for a third time. Bill focuses on "hard assets," with a specific focus on real estate. The conversation winds from some macro (from 15 minutes to 22ish minutes) to more REIT specific ideas (after 24 minutes).

Please note, some of the tariff discussion is already out of date. Nevertheless, we hope you enjoy the conversation!

Bill Chen's other episodes can be found at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyf41BmMYxU and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tmoc2crT55U

For a different perspective on real estate investing check out Ryan Dobratz' episodes at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIVr5Jvr-2M

Few things are more ironic than releasing a China focused episode on Liberation Day. Nevertheless, here we go!

In this episode of The Business Brew, host Bill Brewster interviews Jingshu Zhang, a persistent listener who recommended looking into China's investment opportunities. Zhang shares his journey from studying in the United States to becoming a successful investor with a unique focus on Chinese assets. They discuss Zhang's experience navigating the Chinese market, the impact of geopolitical tensions, the advantages of holding Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and specific investment opportunities like Pinduoduo and Tencent. Jingshu offers insights into managing risk, the macroeconomic environment, and the regulatory landscape in China. Disclaimer: All content is for entertainment purposes only and not financial advice.

00:00 Introduction and Guest Background

01:15 Investment Opportunities in China

04:04 Challenges and Sentiments Towards Chinese Investments

08:15 Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics

15:50 Case Study: TK Group and Industrial Sector Insights

22:55 Pinduoduo's Growth and Strategy

34:37 Exploring Global Investment Opportunities

35:19 US Market Insights and Mid Cap Focus

36:08 Tech Giants and Valuation Comparisons

36:13 Tencent: The Super App of China

43:32 State-Owned Enterprises and Investment Safety

53:20 Environmental Regulations and Investment Opportunities

56:59 Delisting Fears and Investment Strategies

01:04:09 Short Selling Challenges and Lessons Learned

01:07:49 Final Thoughts and Contact Information

Welcome to The Business Brew! Host Bill Brewster is joined by repeat guest Evan Tindell to delve into pressing investment topics for 2024. Evan is the founder and portfolio manager of Bireme Capital. You can find his first episode here: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/william-brewster1/episodes/Evan-Tindell---Where-Poker-and-The-Market-Collide-e1nrbum (Spotify) or https://podcasts.apple.com/si/podcast/evan-tindell-where-poker-and-the-market-collide/id1540847053?i=1000579552480 (Apple).

Together, they explore international valuation disparities, the pitfalls of shorting meme stocks, and the dynamics behind recent market movements. Evan shares his unique approach to investing and the lessons learned from challenging investment phases, including a critical analysis of MicroStrategy, GameStop, and meme stocks.

They also discuss Japan's corporate governance reforms and the implications for global investors. Lastly, Evan and Bill touch on utilizing modern AI tools in investment processes, the future of software, and personal stories from Evan's adventurous journey to Zambia.

As a reminder, nothing discussed constitutes investment advice and is for entertainment purposes only. Enjoy the engaging conversation!

00:00 Welcome to The Business Brew

01:20 Introducing Evan Tindell

02:01 Discussing 2024 Performance

03:09 Challenges of Shorting Meme Stocks

05:14 Bitcoin Yield and MicroStrategy

17:55 Market Inefficiencies and Opportunities

30:59 Investing in Japan

42:09 Investment Strategies and Market Insights

43:17 Diverse Business Models in Japan

44:58 Meeting the Emperor and Personal Anecdotes

45:35 The Role of LLMs in Investment

51:48 AI Tools and Their Impact on Daily Life

56:10 Future of Software and Business Models

01:07:12 Tobacco Industry Analysis

01:15:12 Adventures in Zambia

01:20:36 Conclusion and Farewell

In this episode, the host welcomes back Devin Anderson, co-founder of an investment advisory firm and competitive shotgun shooter. They delve into the psychology and skills required for high performance in sports like shooting, golf, and tennis. Devin shares insights from his own experience and coaching on the importance of building skills consciously, then executing them unconsciously under pressure. He highlights the nuances of practice, routine, and dealing with pressure to achieve peak performance. The discussion also touches on the parallels between competitive sports and high-stakes business environments, emphasizing structured planning and routine for consistent success.

00:00 Introduction and Guest Background

00:35 Competitive Shotgun Shooting Explained

01:32 The Mental Game: Conscious vs. Unconscious Execution

03:52 Why We Play: The Allure of Sports

07:17 Coping with Pressure in Sports

14:01 Skill Building and Confidence

17:06 The Role of Vision in Performance

26:16 Routine and Unconscious Performance

42:11 Overcoming Evaluation Paralysis

42:49 The Four Stages of Execution

44:04 The Importance of Practice Routines

44:58 Building Confidence Under Pressure

49:09 Handling Fear and Careful vs. Careless Misses

50:42 Trust and Performance Under Pressure

55:52 The Role of Routine in Performance

01:09:25 The Fun and Pressure of Competition

Join host Bill Brewster as he converses with the intriguing and often humorous anonymous guest, Le Shrub, in this episode of 'The Business Brew'. Le Shrub's writings can be found at https://www.shrubstack.com/ He can also be followed on Twitter/X at https://x.com/agnostoxxx

With a unique approach to investing, Le Shrub shares his thoughts on market trends, stock picks, and the rationale behind them. From discussing the importance of avoiding investment stupidity, analyzing specific stocks like Archer Aviation and Alibaba, to speculating on the economic impacts of a potential Ukraine ceasefire, this episode is packed with insightful observations and strategic thinking. Be prepared for an engaging mix of entertainment, education, and parody, underlined with Le Shrub's distinct charm.

Disclaimer: This is all for entertainment purposes and not financial advice. Recorded 2/14/25

00:00 Introduction to the Business Brew

00:54 Meet Les Shrub: The Anonymous Guest

01:24 Investment Philosophy: Don't Be Stupid

03:35 The Spinny Ponzi: A Deep Dive into Archer

17:15 Biotech Investments: Blood in the Tweets

21:00 The Future of Cancer Vaccines

22:55 ClearPoint and Gene Therapy

30:02 The Power of Community in Investing

33:19 Navigating the Risks of Small Cap Stocks

34:07 Options Trading Strategies

35:36 The Risks of Investing in Alibaba

36:13 Reasons for Investing in Alibaba

36:38 China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus

37:27 Alibaba's AI and Cloud Ventures

39:00 Apple's Partnership with Alibaba

40:31 The Impact of U.S. CapEx on AI

41:19 Investing in Energy and Natural Gas

44:38 The Barbell Portfolio Strategy

45:17 Emerging Markets and Currency Devaluation

52:53 The Potential Ceasefire in Ukraine

59:15 Valuation and Investment Strategies

01:04:19 Avoiding Shorts on Meme Stocks

01:06:50 Recommended Reading: Capital Returns

01:07:50 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In this episode of 'The Business Brew,' host Bill Brewster is joined by Larry Holzenthaler, a portfolio manager at First Eagle Alternative Credit (FEAC). The discussion focuses on the complexities and nuances of private credit. Recorded on February 3rd, the episode delves into the differences between traditional equity value investing and private credit, as well as the strategic transitions First Eagle has made in response to market changes. Larry explains First Eagle's cautious approach to investment, emphasizing measured risk, recurring revenue, and sponsor-backed deals. He discusses the evolution and growth of private credit markets, challenges and opportunities, and the impact of banking regulations on credit availability. The conversation includes detailed insights into various investment structures like interval funds and BDCs, and the importance of reading fine print in credit agreements. Throughout, Larry offers a compelling argument for the attractiveness of private credit as an investment, particularly in current economic conditions.

00:00 Welcome to the Business Brew

00:54 Introducing Larry Hosenthaler and First Eagle

02:13 The Evolution of Private Credit

08:34 The Impact of COVID on Private Credit

12:22 Private Equity and Risk Management

18:41 The Role of Banks in Private Credit

31:37 Fee Structures and Market Dynamics

36:40 Understanding Interval Funds

37:11 The Redemption Process Explained

39:55 Comparing Interval Funds and BDCs

43:17 Risk Management in Private Credit

44:38 The Role of Recurring Revenue

45:24 Leverage and Deal Flow

56:59 Active vs Passive Management in Credit Markets

01:03:27 Why Invest in Private Credit Now?

01:08:46 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In this episode of The Business Brew, host Bill Brewster engages in a comprehensive discussion with George Livadas about the complexities and current state of the market. Livadas, known for his candid tweets and insightful views, covers topics ranging from market fluctuations in 2024, reminiscent of the 2021 SPAC bubble, to challenges and opportunities in European stocks and the S&P 500's relentless performance. They delve into George’s investment philosophy, focusing on both large and small cap stocks, the impact of global flows on stock valuations, and the nuanced approach required in shorting and hedging. Additionally, they discuss the operational aspects of running a fund, including transitioning from separate accounts to a unified fund structure, and reflect on the broader implications of AI in investment research.

00:00 Welcome to the Business Brew

00:03 Introducing George Livadas

01:06 Market Reflections and SPAC Bubble

06:56 European Market Insights

18:20 Shorting Strategies and Market Sentiment

21:42 Challenges in the Staples Sector

24:57 Running the Firm: Changes and Challenges

27:14 Navigating Market Ups and Downs

27:40 Client Expectations and Realities

28:39 Challenges in Fundraising and Fee Structures

29:44 The Fund of Funds Debate

31:51 AI in Financial Research

35:15 Investment Strategies and Market Trends

39:48 Reflections on COVID and Market Resilience

43:38 Portfolio Management Insights

46:05 Closing Thoughts and Personal Reflections