The 2026 Real Estate Market: Bubble, Boom, or Breakdown?

Ben Brady, CEO of Harcourts Auctions, sits down with Mike “Big Mike” Zlotnik — CEO of TF Management Group and host of the Big Mike Fund Podcast — for a wide-ranging conversation on the trends shaping real estate, private credit, and the broader economy heading into 2026.Mike shares how his journey from Moldova to New York City, combined with a background in mathematics and technology, shaped the analytical lens he now uses to manage real estate funds and evaluate national market cycles. He breaks down why some markets are softening, why others remain surprisingly resilient, and how Wall Street wealth continues to buoy the luxury sector even as affordability hits historic lows.The episode then turns to one of the biggest unknowns in today’s economy: the rapid surge of AI investment and whether we’re entering a bubble similar to the dot-com era. Mike explains how a correction could ripple into real estate — from capital flows to job stability to long-term demand — and why commercial assets, particularly triple-net industrial and retail redevelopment, may be positioned to benefit either way.You’ll also hear Mike’s take on the $90 trillion intergenerational wealth transfer, the psychology behind renting vs. owning, and why private credit has exploded as banks have tightened lending. Whether you’re a residential agent, a commercial investor, or someone trying to decode the next cycle, this conversation offers clarity on the forces driving the market and the opportunities emerging within them.⏱️ Timestamps & Key Topics[00:00:00] – Introducing Mike “Big Mike” Zlotnik & his investment background[00:02:00] – From Moldova to Manhattan: math, tech & real estate fund management[00:05:00] – NYC real estate: appreciation, cash flow, and political risk[00:08:20] – Why some U.S. markets are declining while others are thriving[00:10:00] – Rent drops in the Sunbelt vs. growth in the Northeast[00:11:40] – How AI investment compares to the 1999 dot-com bubble[00:13:00] – What happens to real estate if a tech bubble bursts[00:15:20] – Opportunities in commercial: cap rates, distress & tailwinds[00:17:00] – The $90T wealth transfer: will younger generations sell real estate?[00:20:00] – Renting vs. owning: affordability, emotion & long-term behavior[00:22:00] – Inside The Big Mike Fund Podcast & how Mike evaluates deals[00:23:30] – Why private credit is booming & where the risk sits[00:25:00] – Triple-net industrial vs. private lending: yield, tax, and stability[00:27:00] – How to approach homeownership in a high-rate environment[00:31:00] – How to invest with Mike & access deal opportunities[00:33:00] – Mike’s books, frameworks & upcoming resources🔗 Related Resources:For more info on Harcourts Auctions, our non-distressed auction platform, visit: https://www.harcourtsauctions.com🔗 Connect with Mike Zlotnik & TF Management Group, LLC:https://bigmikefund.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/mzlotnik/https://tempofunding.com/https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bigmikefund/id1333666009https://www.facebook.com/zlotnikm/https://www.youtube.com/@TempoFunding🔗 Connect with Ben Brady and the Harcourts Auctions team:Facebook: www.facebook.com/BenbradyharcourtsLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/ben-brady-0b223517Instagram: www.instagram.com/harcourtsauctionsFacebook: www.facebook.com/HarcourtsAuctions