As markets enter vacation mode, this week's podcast presents our annual summer overview of the proprietary indicators available from State Street Markets and how they map to the most relevant themes driving assets and currencies. The sustainability of the tech trade in equities, the near-term path of inflation and the direction of travel for the Federal Reserve and how they feed into a rate, curve and FX view - it's all here. Host Tim Graf, Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, talks through how unique barometers of investor sentiment, real-time fundamental data and media tones can help navigate the coming weeks.

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The passing of Alan Greenspan last month and confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman in May bookend two booms is US productivity: the mass networking of computing power during the Greenspan Fed of the 1990s and the explosion of inferential applications of computing power today. These cycles influence central bank policy in ways often underappreciated until their aftermath. Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets joins the podcast this week, to look back at the lessons learned from past capex cycles and productivity booms, to apply this experience to the current moment in AI and to assess the initial steps towards institutional reform taken in the early weeks of Kevin Warsh's term.

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The need for robust and enhanced defense spending in an increasingly fragmented world is a policy objective agreed upon across the political divide. Few are better positioned to comment on the obstacles and opportunities of the process than Sir Ben Wallace, a former Captain in the British Army, a member of Parliament for 20 years and Secretary of State for Defense of the United Kingdom between 2019 and 2023. In his post-government life as an investor, he offers a singular perspective on the gaps in manpower and equipment faced by most Western powers and how we can begin to address them.

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