Investors tend to underestimate the probability of tail risk events and assume market correlations will be stable. These are well-understood yet persistent blind spots that damage long-term portfolio performance. This week, we talk to David Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, as he shares his experiences and perspectives on the importance of overcoming these biases and incorporating convexity exposure, towards building greater resilience, maximizing compounding effects in return streams and optimizing for actual, rather than historic, returns.

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Growth stocks are driving returns and economic dynamism, but also sparking discussions of whether we sit in bubble territory. Our guest this week, Matt Smith, portfolio manager at QSM Asset Management, a long/short hedge fund with a value focus, provides a timely reminder of how a consistent, fundamental-oriented approach can still offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. We also walk through current equity markets and how modest pullbacks in the AI trade could pose economic problems.

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A shutdown of the US government raises myriad questions, particularly what economic impacts might be felt in the near-term and the bigger picture puzzle of how to assess the state of the economy when public data from government statistical agencies is delayed or unavailable. This week, we take a deep dive on those questions, with a focus on the September US CPI release as a test case for how to think about and use alternative data sets. We are joined by PriceStats co-founder Alberto Cavallo, global head of macro strategy Michael Metcalfe and senior strategist Noel Dixon for a wide-ranging discussion of the shutdown and how alternative data can complement public data.

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