Today we look at the further strong resurgence in risk assets, noting in particular the first signs of a comeback in some of the most beaten down names in software of late. Elsewhere, Oracle, the most beaten down name in our AI basket was the strongest performer on the S&P 500 Monday. Also, a look at what looks like a fresh bear trend developing in the US dollar, thoughts on the importance of the incoming Trump-Xi summit and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

John's The FX Trader from today, covering the USD sell-off, latest reads on FX trends, USDJPY technicals and more.

A very long form interview with the great Craig Tindale on China's "gaming the system", the rest of the world's physical supply chain challenges and much more.

Shanaka Anslem Perera discusses Iran's short fuse on dealing with any disruption to its oil output flows if the US is indeed going after a blockade on Iranian exports as a pressure tactic. Also, did a US-sanctioned ship bound for China just slip through the blockade?

Macrovoices interviewed Adam Rozencwajg on what comes next after the Iran war crisis. (Sustained higher oil prices, he believes.)

About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we look at the fresh pain for global markets on the collapse of US-Iran talks this weekend and the new US intent to blockade the Hormuz Strait, at least for any ships that are paying tolls to Iran (and presumably any Iranian ship?). We also wonder how China may eventually weigh in, a key question ahead of a supposed Trump-Xi summit set for next month. Elsewhere, we look at the latest winners and losers in the US equity market as Anthropic continues to make enormous waves for software and other companies. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at equity markets that remain hopeful as key US-Iran talks kick off today in Islamabad, Pakistan. Even so, some big software names were under fresh heavy pressure as Anthropic's latest model release carves a path of devastation across the software universe. Elsewhere, we continue to highlight the importance of spot versus future prices for oil, check in on the status of the USD and JPY and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Let's hope he is wrong but Brent Johnson is concerned that food prices will see enormous impacts due to the disruptions of fertilizer flows from the Middle East, even if shipments were to resume tomorrow. The first portion of his paid substack is available for free.

Stratechery does an excellent job putting Anthropic's latest Mythos release into perspective and has an older piece that it refers back to on "Anthropic and alignment" that discusses what is at stake for any leading edge AI company and its relationship with the sovereign.

Finally, you can read the latest grand Craig Tindale thought piece on the geostrategic positioning of the US and why it is doing what it is doing. He penned another piece on his substack that also provides a compelling framework for why the US is behaving as it is, that its position "rhymes" historically with that of Imperial Japan after the US cut off oil and

About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the market maintaining a remarkably resilient stance despite Iran casting doubts on the status of the cease-fire announcement that so enthused market on Wednesday. A critical round of US-Iran negotiations lie ahead in Islamabad, Pakistan for the next round of headline risks. Elsewhere, we run through the development in oil prices, the USD picture and incoming economic data, highlight what likely sparked an ugly sell-off in Palantir yesterday and more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the fragile "cease-fire" between the US and Iran and whether it is mostly a US climbdown from its maximalist threats than any remarkable change of attitude from the Iranian side. Regardless, global markets have reacted in dramatic fashion. We walk through the reaction across asset classes as significant near term oil- and gas supply uncertainties remain. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, an assessment of the end-of-March and quarter-end melt-up in equities, where calendar and positioning factors are likely key drivers in addition to Trump's seeming urgency to wind down the US war in Iran. A bit odd that US military presence continues to mount then, isn't it? A look at ongoing supply chain questions, how the situation is weighing on rates and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a US market that was under exceptional pressure as major US name sold off, taking the US market to cycle lows when the broader market and other markets globally are still solidly away from the prior lows. Also, noting the many pressure points on market concerns for class action suits against Meta and possibly Google, technical disruption boosting computer memory performance and even LNG closures in Australia, all while US treasury yields and oil are ramping higher again ahead of another weekend. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links:

Here is Triggernometry interviewing an expert on the risk that this Iran conflict drags on, but with some interesting ideas as well on how Trump might flip the script.

Here is the interview with Kuppy on the Benny and the Squirrel podcast, the hedge fund manager with some worthy observations on current market conditions, the general market environment and his approach to trading. Golden stuff.

About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Markets are aggressively pricing an improved outlook for global energy flows as US president Trump seems to want to wrap things up in Iran as quickly as possible to avoid further damage to his popularity from the impact on the US economy from high energy prices and weak stock market sentiment. But not all players in the Middle East are on the same page - so we're a bit afraid to draw any conclusions until more clarity emerges. Elsewhere, software-as-a-service names were under new pressure once again. We also talk macro & FX and even provide a little wrap on the Danish general election from Thursday. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.