Friday 23rd January 2026

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Oil has been trending lower lately. Rory Johnston says its primarily down to an expanding oil glut, which the market expects will be ultimately corrected. In the meantime, the impact of the glut has been subsumed by a variety of other factors, such as sanctions on Russia, the attack on Venezuela, uncertainty over Iran and such like. Without these distractions and the assumption of a supply correction Rory reckons oil prices would be sub $50, if not sub $40.

Rory is an oil market researcher, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munks school of global affairs and public policy, and founder of Commodity Context, that provides deep data-driven analysis of the oil markets (commoditycontext.com). He joins Phil to talk through what is influencing oil prices and what he expects to happen this year.

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Friday 30th January 2026

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Microsoft was hammered overnight on fears it’s pushing too hard, too fast on AI investment, a sharp contrast to Meta, which is spending heavily too but can point to AI‑driven ad revenue as proof it’s paying off; add in rising speculation that Washington is preparing to strike Iran unless a new nuclear deal materialises, a tension clearly visible in a 3% jump in oil, while iron ore is climbing on China’s effective scrapping of its property‑sector borrowing limits. NAB’s Rodrigo Catriul joins Phil to talk through all this and more, with a lot of data due today, including Australian private‑sector credit.

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Thursday 29th January 2026

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Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

The Fed kept rates on hold, with two dissenters calling for a 25bp cut, but the real question for investors is how long the central bank stays on pause after three cuts already. NAB’s Sally Auld unpacked a statement that kept the door open to further easing but gave no hint of timing, against stubborn inflation and falling jobless claims. Australia’s Q4 CPI surprised on the upside to many, heightening expectations for an RBA hike next week, yet yields slipped. Geopolitics simmered, with US naval deployments raising questions about Iran and adding fuel to the gold rally. Currency chatter centred on yen intervention rumours — quashed by Scott Bessent — while the Bank of Canada held steady amid US trade uncertainty. And with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the bell, markets braced for another test of the AI‑driven tech narrative.

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