We've been seeing the stock market stuck in neutral so right now we're focusing on rising inflation, interest rates, government debt, and growing risks across the economy and financial markets. Today we talk the Fed's unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike alongside our concerns about the persistent inflation we've been seeing. We also discuss why bonds are becoming more attractive for income, and the difference between high inflation and hyperinflation. We also explore the media sensationalism and how it can distort perceptions of risk and seasonal market patterns around the coming midterm elections.

We discuss...

• How inflation, economic growth, and currency devaluation could be used to reduce the burden of the massive national debt.
• The potential impact of higher inflation on asset owners, real estate, debt, and investment returns was explored.
• The difference between high inflation and hyperinflation was explained, along with why hyperinflation is viewed as unlikely in the U.S.
• Why bonds have become more attractive for retirement income as yields have risen.
• Media sensationalism and the way news coverage can distort perceptions of risks such as terrorism, crime, COVID, and other causes of death were examined.
• Growing market concentration and unusually high household exposure to equities were highlighted as potential sources of market fragility.
• Weakening real consumer purchasing power as inflation continues to outpace wage growth.
• Rising national debt and the rapid pace of additional borrowing were examined as growing long-term economic concerns.
• Historical market seasonality around midterm elections and the tendency for markets to strengthen later in the year.
• The Nasdaq's sideways performance, the Russell 2000's recent weakness, and potential opportunities in small-cap stocks.
• Gold and silver as markets that may require patience following periods of strong performance and consolidation.
• Bitcoin and the hosts' differing levels of confidence in various cryptocurrencies, including XRP.
• Rising 30-year mortgage rates and their potential impact on housing affordability and home prices.
• The housing market is increasingly strained by high mortgage rates, elevated home prices, declining buyers, and rising listings.
• Investors should remain cautious and pay attention to market signals rather than assuming current calm conditions will continue.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/stock-market-stuck-853

Jonathan Nurick joins the show to discuss a long-term investing strategy centered on the boring stocks. He talks dividend growth, free cash flow, and the importance of staying invested through market volatility. We explore investor psychology and the challenge of ignoring exciting trends like AI and speculative IPOs in favor of boring but resilient businesses such as Cintas and Home Depot. Jonathan also explains why his strategy favors established mid- to large-cap companies, particularly U.S. market leaders, and he emphasizes that successful investing requires not only choosing the right investments but also having the discipline and framework to hold them long enough for compounding to work.

We discuss...

• Why dividend growth can be a powerful long-term investing strategy.
• Growing dividends can provide investors with a fundamental signal that helps them stay invested through market volatility.
• How free cash flow can be used for dividends, buybacks, debt repayment, and reinvestment.
• Buybacks can be highly effective when companies repurchase shares at attractive valuations.
• Strong management teams and disciplined capital allocation are critical to the success of dividend-growth companies.
• Investor psychology makes it difficult to ignore exciting trends like AI, semiconductors, and IPOs when they are outperforming.
• The investment process emphasizes competitive advantages, low leverage, high returns on capital, and predictable growth.
• Why investing in established market leaders can provide greater resilience than chasing newer, highly competitive industries.
• Choosing what to own is only half of successful investing, with knowing how to hold it being equally important.
• Investors can improve their discipline by focusing on fundamental progress and dividend growth instead of constantly watching share prices.
• Find the beauty in boring businesses and let long-term compounding do the work.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/boring-stocks-jonathan-nurick

There is a 90% chance for a rate hike... Today we cover growing economic and market risks, as we hone in on AI, inflation, interest rates, housing, and government spending. There is increasingly negative messaging from major AI companies, arguing that calls for regulation may reflect slowing AI growth and a desire to limit competition rather than purely concern for public safety, while warning that a slowdown in AI investment could expose an already stagnant economy and increase recession risks. We also talk the rising expectations for Fed rate hikes, higher Treasury yields, and weakening housing affordability. We review seasonal market weakness in September and October, stock issuance as a potential warning sign of corporate stress, and why investors should remain cautious and reduce risk amid increasing volatility and uncertainty.

We discuss...

College planning and how scholarships can dramatically reduce the actual cost of expensive liberal arts colleges.
The changing narrative around AI and whether growing calls for AI regulation are partly driven by major companies trying to limit competition.
Whether AI development is beginning to plateau after several years of rapid growth and what that could mean for the economy and markets.
Slowing AI investment could expose underlying economic weakness and potentially contribute to stagnation or recession.
Rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes as inflation and employment data point toward a more challenging economic environment.
Higher interest rates and Treasury yields could put additional pressure on an already stretched housing market.
How housing affordability has deteriorated dramatically for younger Americans and why falling home prices could ultimately be beneficial for buyers.
Why mortgage rates are influenced more directly by Treasury yields and the broader yield curve than by the Fed's policy rate alone.
How the traditional 60/40 portfolio has become less effective as stocks and bonds have increasingly moved together.
Why rising interest rates can make short-term fixed income more attractive while creating risks for investors holding longer-term bonds.
How everyday necessities such as groceries, shelter, insurance, fuel, and coffee have risen sharply in price despite headline inflation appearing much lower.
Rising gas prices and their potential political consequences heading into the midterm elections.
Increased corporate stock issuance as a potential warning sign that companies may be relying on equity financing rather than debt to raise capital.

For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/chance-for-a-rate-hike-851