Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:58 – Our team of experts discusses the impact of the government shutdown on economic data releases, inflation concerns, and labor market trends.

04:35 – Analysis of bond market movements, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and insights from recent FOMC minutes.

08:24 – The panel examines high market valuations, the impact of “hopes and dreams,” and the effects of vendor financing and developments in the AI sector.

13:34 – Insights into gold’s record highs, central bank buying, treasury market trends, and expectations for Q3 earnings season.

Additional Resources
Read: Key Questions: What Does MAHA Mean for Healthcare and Consumer Staples Companies? | Key Private Bank

Read: Key Questions: How Does AI Impact Corporate Companies and Fixed-Income Investors?

New White Paper: An Introduction to Direct Indexing | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

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Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

00:54 – We review the key economic data and market activity from the past week, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, the September ADP National Employment Report showing a significant decline in private sector employment, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and services PMI reports.

02:45 – The current government shutdown prevented the release of data on weekly initial unemployment claims as well as reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics around new nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

03:23 – One side effect of the shutdown is that the integrity of the data that we did receive may be less reliable. However, the overall labor market is in a "low firing, low hiring" environment, with pockets of strength in consumer spending and AI infrastructure investment.

05:36 – We discuss the history of government shutdowns and how the lengthier examples in recent years may be due to increasing partisanship, and what short- and long-term effects a shutdown may have on the labor force, the markets and the economy.

09:39 – Treasuries rallied as investors sought safe-haven assets after the shutdown took effect. Attention then turned to the Fed to see whether their recently begun rate-cutting campaign will continue, as is expected at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later this month.

14:43 – Despite a year of atypical trends and behavior, this shutdown is expected to go as most past shutdowns have: volatility might jostle the equities and bond markets in the short term, but after the shutdown ends and the temperature goes back down, the markets tend to rebound and resolve at higher levels than prior to the shutdown.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: How Does AI Impact Corporate Companies and Fixed-Income Investors?

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Joel Redmond, Managing Director of Business Advisory Services at Key Private Bank, joins the podcast this week to provide some insights and advice for business owners. He also addresses recent legislation changes that might affect capital gains tax exclusions for certain C corporations. Brian and George break down the news and numbers of the week and discuss the overarching risk appetite of the economy, as evidenced by pockets of concentrated investment in certain sectors like AI. We also touch on the Federal Reserve, equities and fixed income, and the importance of a diversified portfolio.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Joel Redmond, Managing Director of Business Advisory Services

02:10 – The initial unemployment claims, GDP, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data all showed the economy remains in a relatively strong position, with consumer spending being a key driver.

06:00 –the concentration of growth in certain areas, such as AI, raises concerns about the economy's risk profile.

09:16 – The economic data suggests the Federal Reserve may only implement one more interest rate cut this year, rather than the multiple cuts some had expected.

11:27 – For business owners, especially in the lower middle-market range, the podcast highlights the importance of knowing the value of their business, having proper legal and organizational documentation in order, and having access to expert legal counsel when preparing for a business transition or sale.

18:15 – The podcast also discusses a tax provision, Section 1202 of the tax code, that provides significant capital gains tax exclusions for owners of qualified small business stock, which was expanded under the recent "One Big Beautiful Bill" legislation.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: How Does the Push to Digitize All Federal Payments To and From the Federal Government Impact You?

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

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Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management, joins the podcast to deliver a report on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; be sure to read her companion piece, “The Fed Cut Rates, But Didn’t Cut Loose” on our Weekly Investment Brief feed. Our discussion tracks how the equity and bond markets behaved leading up to, and following, the meeting, and what we might expect in the future. We also step back in time to the mid-1990s to draw parallels to two things we’re seeing today: a rate-cutting Fed amid a tech-driven bull market, and comparing Microsoft’s investment in Apple back then to Nvidia’s potential investment in Intel today.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:51 – We report on the generally positive numbers across retail sales, industrial production, and weekly initial unemployment claims.

03:47 – Coverage of this week’s FOMC meeting, including the 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, the themes and opinions driving that decision, Chair Powell’s press briefing, and the likelihood of further cuts this year.

09:25 – Both the 2-year and the 10-year Treasury yields climbed steadily leading up to, and after, the FOMC meeting, signaling that buyers have not stepped in yet.

12:42 – A historical lookback at the mid-1990s, when the Fed was cutting rates amid a stock market boom fueled by the emergent tech sector, in a parallel fashion to today’s market and economic activity.

14:59 – We discuss Nvidia’s potential investment in Intel, and what this means for domestic and overseas investment and manufacturing.

Additional Resources

Read: The Fed Cuts Rates, But Didn’t Cut Loose – 9/17/2025 FOMC Update

Ask: What Are Nine Things to Watch as We Begin the Ninth Month of the Year?

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In this week's episode, we break down the factors and trends shaping the economy, including new reports that shed some light on labor and inflation. Expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) appear to be the main driving force behind movements in fixed income and equities. Please join us on Thursday, September 18, where we’ll sit down with experts in Artificial Intelligence during our National Call: AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to Know. And be sure to tune in again next week, where we’ll recap the news from this highly-anticipated FOMC meeting, and anything else impacting the markets.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

02:16 – We consider a softening labor market as evidenced by an increase in weekly initial unemployment claims and the semi-annual update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics detailing a correction of over 900,000 fewer jobs in the 12-month period ending in March 2025 than was initially reported.

03:42 – The Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed a slight decline, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated higher-than-expected month-over-month and year-over-year inflation, driven mainly by food and shelter costs.

04:48 – The Fed seems poised to resume interest rate cuts with next week’s FOMC meeting, as fears of making a policy error dissipate as rising (but not accelerating) inflation and a cooling jobs market create an opportunistic environment for rate cutting.

06:40 – Treasuries show demand and momentum ahead of the FOMC meeting, with the 2-Year Treasury yield hitting 3.55% and the 10-Year around 4.06%.

11:04 – Equities buck the historical norm of taking a downturn this time of year, buoyed by expectations of rate cuts and record investments in tentpole industries like Artificial Intelligence in an apparently non-recessionary climate.

14:08 – A brief look into what’s happening with resilient crude oil prices and early stimulation in the housing market.

16:11 – We revisit our predictions for 2025 that were made late last year, and gauge how accurate they have been thus far.

Additional Resources

9/18 Webinar: Key Wealth's National Call - AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to Know

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

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In this week's episode, we discuss the Beige Book Report, and three employment reports including fresh numbers from a weaker-than-expected report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We also touch on the policies and politics bedeviling the Federal Reserve, and the likelihood of rate cuts later this month. As always, we analyze how all of these factors affect the equity and bond markets. Finally, happy National 401(k) Day! See today’s resources below to help you educate and celebrate.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:45 – The four reports driving economic activity this week: the Beige Book report, initial unemployment claims, the Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and the eagerly-expected BLS Employment Situation report.

05:21 – The weak BLS report further fuels expectations for a September rate cut, with the odds of bigger or more frequent cuts increasing.

07:28 – A look into the economy’s impact on the stock market, and vice versa, and the k-shaped economy of 401(k) haves and have-nots.

09:19– Treasuries have rallied on the jobs report, with some calling it a “jobs recession.”

11:20 – We discuss the goings-on at the Federal Reserve, including Stephen Miran’s confirmation hearing for Fed Governor and Scott Bessent’s alleged interviews for the next Fed Chair.

14:11 – In the world of equities, cyclicals and small cap stocks are ascending as mega-cap tech stocks had a slower week.

18:45 – Concluding thoughts on the still-present threat of tariffs impacting the economy, and what to do with your portfolio now.

National 401(k) Day Resources

Retirement Advice

Should I Still Worry About Inflation’s Impact on My Retirement Plan?

The Key 401(k) Pooled Employer Plan

Additional Resources

9/18 Webinar: Key Wealth's National Call - AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to Know

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

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In this week's episode, we discuss the latest economic and market news, including updates on unemployment claims, GDP growth, and inflation data. Our experts provide their insights and analysis on the implications of these and other economic developments, particularly the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. We also touch on the potential political challenges facing the Fed and questions about its independence and how that could affect the equity and bond markets.

01:59 – The three reports this week on initial unemployment claims, GDP, and consumer spending, are painting a mixed picture of the economy.

04:49 – Nvidia’s earnings report feels representative of the broader market; equities continued to climb this week, despite a sell off Friday morning and the potential for seasonal plateaus.

06:15 – Turmoil at the Fed having minimal impact on equities, but the bond market appears much more susceptible as the yield curve steepens.

08:29 – We ruminate on the implications for Fed independence, the rate environment, and overall economic and social implications of a change in the composition of the Fed Board of Governors.

10:28 – Parallels may be seen between the current economic climate and the bubble of the late 1990s to mid 2000s.

13:28 – Rate cuts are still likely at September’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

14:31 – Some advice on how to approach your portfolio in the midst of an uncertain economic and political climate.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

Additional Resources

Attend: AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to Know.

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

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In this week's episode, our experts review the now-stale minutes from July’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s new dovishness from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and what to look out for in the coming weeks as we near the end of a notable summer.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

02:30 – We highlight this week’s economic releases: the Labor Department reports that weekly unemployment claims rose slightly but remained stable over the past 18 months, and the National Association of Realtors reports that existing home sales rose by 2% in July.

03:43 – The July FOMC minutes were hawkish, and show Committee member concerns over tariff-driven inflation, elevated asset valuations, and that the current fed funds rate may not be far above neutral. The meeting pre-dated the weaker July employment report and subsequent shift in focus from inflation to the cooling jobs market.

04:52 – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appears to pivot towards a dovish stance and emphasizing the downside risks to the labor market at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium; expectations of a rate-cutting cycle beginning in September shot up and Treasury yields dropped sharply in response.

07:47 – Political turmoil continues to put pressure on the Federal Reserve on allegations of mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has been pressured to resign or face removal by President Trump.

12:45 – We discuss the apparent bifurcation in the economy, with weakness in consumer spending offset by strength in business investment, particularly in data centers and artificial intelligence.

16:46 – We anticipate how the market might react to an upcoming earnings report from Nvidia and news that the federal government is considering taking ownership positions in tech stocks.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: How Does Key Wealth Define Quality Within Our Internally Managed Equity Strategies?

Watch: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

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