Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:58 – Our team of experts discusses the impact of the government shutdown on economic data releases, inflation concerns, and labor market trends.

04:35 – Analysis of bond market movements, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and insights from recent FOMC minutes.

08:24 – The panel examines high market valuations, the impact of “hopes and dreams,” and the effects of vendor financing and developments in the AI sector.

13:34 – Insights into gold’s record highs, central bank buying, treasury market trends, and expectations for Q3 earnings season.

Additional Resources
Read: Key Questions: What Does MAHA Mean for Healthcare and Consumer Staples Companies? | Key Private Bank

Read: Key Questions: How Does AI Impact Corporate Companies and Fixed-Income Investors?

New White Paper: An Introduction to Direct Indexing | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

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251002-3563428

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

00:54 – We review the key economic data and market activity from the past week, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, the September ADP National Employment Report showing a significant decline in private sector employment, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and services PMI reports.

02:45 – The current government shutdown prevented the release of data on weekly initial unemployment claims as well as reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics around new nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

03:23 – One side effect of the shutdown is that the integrity of the data that we did receive may be less reliable. However, the overall labor market is in a "low firing, low hiring" environment, with pockets of strength in consumer spending and AI infrastructure investment.

05:36 – We discuss the history of government shutdowns and how the lengthier examples in recent years may be due to increasing partisanship, and what short- and long-term effects a shutdown may have on the labor force, the markets and the economy.

09:39 – Treasuries rallied as investors sought safe-haven assets after the shutdown took effect. Attention then turned to the Fed to see whether their recently begun rate-cutting campaign will continue, as is expected at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later this month.

14:43 – Despite a year of atypical trends and behavior, this shutdown is expected to go as most past shutdowns have: volatility might jostle the equities and bond markets in the short term, but after the shutdown ends and the temperature goes back down, the markets tend to rebound and resolve at higher levels than prior to the shutdown.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: How Does AI Impact Corporate Companies and Fixed-Income Investors?

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

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Weekly Investment Brief

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Joel Redmond, Managing Director of Business Advisory Services at Key Private Bank, joins the podcast this week to provide some insights and advice for business owners. He also addresses recent legislation changes that might affect capital gains tax exclusions for certain C corporations. Brian and George break down the news and numbers of the week and discuss the overarching risk appetite of the economy, as evidenced by pockets of concentrated investment in certain sectors like AI. We also touch on the Federal Reserve, equities and fixed income, and the importance of a diversified portfolio.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Joel Redmond, Managing Director of Business Advisory Services

02:10 – The initial unemployment claims, GDP, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data all showed the economy remains in a relatively strong position, with consumer spending being a key driver.

06:00 –the concentration of growth in certain areas, such as AI, raises concerns about the economy's risk profile.

09:16 – The economic data suggests the Federal Reserve may only implement one more interest rate cut this year, rather than the multiple cuts some had expected.

11:27 – For business owners, especially in the lower middle-market range, the podcast highlights the importance of knowing the value of their business, having proper legal and organizational documentation in order, and having access to expert legal counsel when preparing for a business transition or sale.

18:15 – The podcast also discusses a tax provision, Section 1202 of the tax code, that provides significant capital gains tax exclusions for owners of qualified small business stock, which was expanded under the recent "One Big Beautiful Bill" legislation.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: How Does the Push to Digitize All Federal Payments To and From the Federal Government Impact You?

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

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Weekly Investment Brief

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