Markets may be stabilizing, but the signals aren’t confirming a true bottom. In this episode, we break down what’s really driving stocks in the near term and why the long-term outlook still leans bullish.

We share insights from Matt Gertken and feature a deep dive with Ed Clissold on the market bottoming process, the psychological phases of a bear market, and how monetary policy is shaping the road ahead. Plus, we cover persistent inflation pressures, fiscal policy concerns, and rising geopolitical risks in oil—including the growing threat to the Strait of Hormuz and the case for a new commodity supercycle.

Markets are at a crossroads—are we heading into a recession or just seeing a bear market rally? We break down key signals, from typical pre-bear conditions to how earnings behave in downturns, and what $100 oil could mean for investors.

Then Matt Gertken joins us to discuss the Iran conflict, warning that while tensions may ease short term, the risk of a major oil shock remains high. With conflicting global objectives and an 80–90% chance of recession or stagflation if oil spikes, the economic stakes are significant—even if things cool for now.

In this episode, we explore how two competing worldviews Biblically based thinking and Humanism—shape not only culture but also long-term economic and societal trends. We discuss how America’s founding principles were deeply rooted in a biblical framework, influencing ideas around individual responsibility, morality, and governance.

From there, we contrast Humanism, which centers on human reason and autonomy, and examine how these differing philosophies impact major “mega trends” like demographics, population growth, and policy decisions. Using historical examples—including Paul Ehrlich’s failed predictions of catastrophic overpopulation—we highlight how worldview assumptions can lead to very different conclusions about the future.

Drawing on the principle of “know your enemy,” we emphasize the importance of understanding opposing perspectives in order to navigate today’s complex landscape.