In this fascinating interview with nuclear expert Ankit Panda we discuss the escalating conflict following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and its implications for global nuclear deterrence. He argues that Iran's strategy appears aimed at regionalizing the conflict across the Gulf to generate diplomatic pressure, while questioning the credibility of claims about Iran's imminent nuclear weapons capability.

We discussed:

• How the succession to Ayatollah Khamenei's more hardline son could alter Iran's longstanding restraint on both missile ranges and nuclear weaponization.
• The troubling lessons other nations (particularly U.S. adversaries like North Korea) may draw from Iran's fate (nuclear weapons provide the ultimate deterrent against regime change).
• How both adversarial and allied proliferation dynamics are re-surging in ways unseen since the Cold War, with countries from Seoul to Stockholm reconsidering their nuclear postures.
• Panda critiques last year's bombing campaign as ultimately counterproductive to nonproliferation goals, leaving 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium unaccounted for and eliminating IAEA verification continuity.
• Despite the current trajectory, Panda maintains that any sustainable resolution to Iran's nuclear program will require diplomatic engagement—though achieving that will prove extraordinarily difficult given how recent events have validated North Korea's narrative about the risks of cooperation with the West.

Bio:
Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on nuclear strategy, escalation, missiles and missile defense, space security, and US alliances. He is the author of Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea and Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Risks, and his forthcoming book is The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon.

His work has appeared in outlets including the New York Times, the Economist, the Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and he serves as editor-at-large at The Diplomat, where he hosts the Asia Geopolitics podcast.

Welcome back to Intrigue Outloud! The US has officially entered its Trump 2.0 era, so we decided to have a chat to reflect on his predecessor's foreign policy legacy. We talk about Biden's approach in Ukraine, whether he was played by Bibi Netanyahu in the Israel-Hamas conflict, and how the last four years of US-China competition is setting Trump up for a tumultuous second term.

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Happy New Year! To get settled in 2025 we thought we'd record a special episode to discuss the year ahead. John, Helen, and Jeremy trade takes on the future of Maduro's Venezuela, whether ISIS is making a comeback in post-Assad Syria, the prospects for a hot conflict between China and Taiwan, and much more. Stick around for the end to see Helen and JD go head to head in a legendary geopolitical trivia showdown.

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Summary

In this special edition on Syria one week after Assad's downfall, Helen, John and Jeremy discuss:

• The recent developments in Syria following Assad's flight to Russia, the role of HTS in governing Idlib, and the implications of regional powers' involvement.
• The complexities of the Syrian conflict, the potential for civil war, and the skepticism surrounding HTS's ability to govern effectively.
• We also give the view from Israel and Iran as well as Turkey's strategic gains and the shifting geopolitical landscape.

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This week, John and Kristen discuss developments in Rome at a conference attracting numerous foreign ministers as the G7 meets right next door, closing Italy’s hosting year.

John dives into what Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s proposed Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, would mean for Washington and the country, plus what some of the 47ths cabinet picks could mean for Trump’s policy.

John mentioned the Musk and Ramaswamy’s op-ed in the Wall Street Journal which you can read here: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/musk-and-ramaswamy-the-doge-plan-to-reform-government-supreme-court-guidance-end-executive-power-grab-fa51c020

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We hate to be the bearers of bad news, but our expert co-host and chief executive, John Fowler, has lost his voice! This means today’s edition of the pod is postponed—but don’t worry, we’ll be back as soon as he’s ready to speak again.

Thanks for your patience, and stay tuned!

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Welcome to Trump's America. On January 20th, former President Donald Trump will become the 47th president. In the meantime, he is President-elect. Washington, as we know it, has changed and will evolve over the next some 10 weeks. Is this a surprise? Tune in.

Join John and Kristen for their takes on the US election and what it means for the world.

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This week, we dive into if newspapers should endorse candidates, each campaign's closing pitches, the period after November 5th and who countries around the world are hoping the American people vote for.

Join John and Kristen for their takes on the US election and what it means for the world.

Sign up for weekly editions of the Election Intrigue newsletter here.

Shoot us an email here.

3:00-8:00 — Harris’ remarks at the Ellipse

8:00-20:00 — Campaign’s closing pitches

22:00-30:00 — Post-election period

30:00 — 40:00 — Newspaper endorsements

40:00 — 42:00 — Campaigns in one-line

42:00 — 53:00 — Cabinet pick

58:00 — 1:06:00 — Who other countries want to win

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