Where’s the strongest suburb for future price growth in Australia?

What’s the most consistent location for sales activity in the nation and therefore likely to deliver superior price growth?

And what’s the absolute worst place to buy real estate right now?

The answers to all those questions and a whole lot more are revealed in the new Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index.

Now, we publish a lot of great reports with unique insights into property markets across Australia - but this is undoubtedly our best report.

The thing that’s so special about this report is that we do something that no one else does in Australian real estate - we chart trends with sales activity and use that to predict likely future movements in prices.

We apply a rating to every suburb and town in the nation - whether the market is rising, or recovering, or fading, or declining.

Our analysis of this data allows us to pinpoint the locations with the strongest trends in real estate across Australia - the ones most likely to deliver superior price growth.

We also identify the places to avoid, the ones where market trends are negative.

We pinpoint the best clusters of growth suburbs in the nation - the local government areas where suburbs collectively have the most positive trends with buyer demand.

We also identify the winners and losers among the big market jurisdictions - the eight capital cities and six state regional markets.

It’s fair to say that many of the findings will surprise a lot of people.

There is so much priceless market intel in this one report - so, if you buy just one research report this year, this is the one to get - the new Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index.

I’m about to tell you what’s going to happen with property prices this year and I’m going to tell you why.

The information real estate buyers MOST want to know is where to buy for superior capital growth, both in the short term and the long term.

The problem for investors is that the research companies and the media don’t tell us that.

They tell us what’s recently happened with property prices. They inform us about the past.

And while that may be interesting, it doesn’t provide us with the really key information: what will happen with prices in the future.

That’s where Hotspotting comes in. Our proven methodology has a track record of predicting the future successfully and often.

And one of our core techniques is used to create the best of our stable of reports: The Price Predictor Index.

The underlying principle is really simple but wonderfully effective.

We don’t spend our time charting price movements - we devote our resources to following what’s happening with sales volumes - the number of sales in each location and whether they’re rising, flatlining or falling.

History tells us that sales activity is a forward indicator of what will happen with prices.

And the new Winter edition of the report provides important clues about which markets are rising and which ones are falling.

Here are some of the key pieces of market intelligence that our new analysis provides:-

• The Perth boom has likely peaked and we urge caution for the many investors diving into this market after three years of big price growth.

• Melbourne prices will perform a lot better in 2024 than they did in the past two years.

• Some of the regional markets have stepped up as likely national leaders on price growth in the next 12 months. They include places like the Wollongong region, including in particular the Shoalhaven LGA; Gladstone in Central Queensland; and Albury-Wodonga at the Victoria-NSW border.

• Smaller capital cities which have been weak lately are showing solid signs of recovery and will do better in the next year, including Canberra and Darwin.

• Some of the iconic markets which had spectacular booms up to 2022 and have been in a correction phase since then, are now showing signs of moving into their next up-cycle. They include Byron Bay, the Sunshine Coast and the Mornington Peninsula.

• Other former boom markets that look to be heading into another period of growth include Albury-Wodonga, Ballarat and Bendigo in Victoria, Hervey Bay in Queensland and Launceston in Tasmania.

• Apartment markets in good locations in our biggest cities continue to attract buyers in large numbers with improved capital growth performance - Sydney City and the Inner West nearby are among the stand-outs.

The Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index has other priceless intel - including the National Top 50 Supercharged Suburbs list, the 50 most consistent growth markets in the nation, the 10 leading local government areas in Australia and the 50 worst declining markets, the ones to avoid.

From these lists, we nominate the No.1 best supercharged suburb, the nation’s most consistent location which is delivering big price growth - and the worst place to buy right now.

And, if you want to know what they are, you’ll need to get a copy of the report.

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Key Topics Covered

• What is Commercial Property?
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It’s important for property investors to understand the difference between a population and home building hotspot – and what we at Hotspotting would define as a property growth hotspot.

There are those who believe that the best philosophy in selecting good places to buy real estate is to follow the population growth – and buy in the locations where population is growing the most or the fastest.

This, we believe, is a very poor strategy.

Very often, the locations that have the highest population growth rates do so simply because they’re locations on the fringe of a major city where there’s land available for building new housing estates – and naturally the population will grow there, often from a very low base.

And sometimes the growth in prices in these kinds of locations is subdued because there are large quantities of new housing supply being created – i.e. there’s an absence of shortage.

By contrast, some of the best capital growth is often achieved in locations where there is little or no population growth – because they’re established suburbs with no large vacant areas for new homes to be built.

The only way the population can grow in such places is by increased density – for example, houses are knocked down and replaced by apartment buildings.

Recently the Housing Industry Association published its latest hotspots report – and their definition of a hotspot is very different to ours.

The HIA report seeks to identify the areas where the greatest amount of new population and new home construction is occurring.

Media reported on this with headlines such as: “Population Boom Creates Hotspots”.

A typical article said:

“Surging population growth is creating housing hotspots in the suburban outskirts of Australia’s major capital cities.

“The annual Housing Industry Association Population and Residential Building Hotspots Report says the northwest Sydney suburbs of Box Hill and Nelson are Australia’s biggest hotspots for construction, followed by Fraser Rise and Plumpton in Melbourne’s west.”

Now, this is a perfectly valid report for the HIA to produce, because it speaks to the primary activity of its members, the important business of creating new dwellings – something the nation needs, because there’s a serious shortage.

The HIA definition of a hotspot is “areas where population growth eclipses the national rate of 2.4% and building work is worth more than $200 million”.

But it’s important to understand that such places are not necessarily good places to invest.

The Hotspotting definition of a hotspot is a place where there are underlying economic factors likely to create superior capital growth in the medium to long term.

Our EMPERICAL formula for selecting the locations likely to become capital growth hotspots includes the strength and depth of the economy, the size of the population (but not how much it is growing), the existing infrastructure and amenities, investment in new infrastructure and a number of other features.

Locations that satisfy the various criteria in our EMPERICAL formula are far more likely to deliver superior capital growth than city fringe locations where the population is growing fast through new housing estates.

Join Terry Ryder & Tim Graham as they reveal the powerful EMPIRICAL Formula used to identify the Top 50 Suburbs for above-average rental yields and outstanding capital growth.

Discover how our formula has consistently delivered remarkable results, with some areas experiencing up to 30% growth in the past year.

Webinar Highlights:

The EMPIRICAL Formula: Learn the methodology behind selecting top-performing suburbs. Proven Results: See the impressive outcomes from following our tips, including double-digit capital growth in the latest quarter alone.

Top 50 Suburbs: Discover locations with high rental yields (5-8%) and property appreciation rates (10-15%).

Case Studies: Explore success stories like Orelia in Perth (17.9% increase in three months), East Mackay in Queensland, and Kingston in southern Brisbane. Exceptional Performance: Uncover 11 suburbs with over 20% growth in the past year.

Regional Standout: Dalby, Queensland, with a 24% increase in rental yields and a 15% rise in property valuations in the last 12 months. Ideal for:

Serious Property Investors Real Estate Professionals Mortgage Brokers Financial Planners Buyers Agents Investment Advisors

For more information on our Hotspotting reports please visit www.hotspotting.com.au/reports And for more information on memberships visit www.hotspotting.com.au/memberships

The misuse of price statistics represents a clear and present danger for real estate consumers trying to make choices about where to buy.

The much-quoted adage about lies, damned lies and statistics applies very aptly to median prices for locations across Australia.

While this data can be useful to buyers and sellers, if used intelligently, way too often it’s misused and abused in news media in ways that misinform and mislead consumers.

One of the most common misuses of median price data occurs when media outlets publish lists of the locations which, allegedly, have had the biggest growth in property values in a recent time period.

Journalists love these lists, usually spat out of the computer database of a research organisation which craves free publicity and doesn’t care too much about the accuracy or authenticity of the figures.

One of the problems is that journalists often confuse a 10% rise in the median house price with a 10% rise in the location’s property values. Often it’s not the same thing at all, because median prices are very rubbery figures.

Here are a few facts about median prices you need to know about:-

1. If you do a computer search on the median price for any suburb or town in Australia, you might get answers from seven or eight different sources and they will be all different.

2. If you ask how much the median house price has grown, or fallen, in the past 12 months, you again will often get seven or eight different answers.

3. Median prices are notoriously and dangerously unreliable if the sales sample is small. If, for example, there have been only nine or ten sales in a suburb or town in the past year, then the median price will be meaningless, and the increase or decrease will be unreliable, because that’s a very small sales sample.

4. At Hotspotting, we disregard median price data for a location if there are fewer than 30 sales in a year.

So recently, a recent media headline shouted very loudly about a New South Wales location where “property values” had risen 150% in the past five years – including 8.2% in the past 12 months, according to CoreLogic – which is one of those research organisations which loves free publicity and doesn’t always scrutinise the data that achieves it.

The reality is that the location in question, Catherine Hill Bay in the Lake Macquarie area, is a very small village with very few sales – and the figures on its median house price cannot be treated as gospel.

According to the article, the median house price was $1.43 million, according to CoreLogic, up 8.2% in 12 months and 151% in five years.

But if you check out the latest figures on yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au, the median house price is $1.56 million, up 5.7% in the past 12 months – and has grown at a rate of 25% per year over the past 10 years – which means property values are doubling every three years.

If that was true, this insignificant location would be the outstanding real estate performer in the nation, if not the world.

But PropTrack’s latest information says the median house price is $1.6 million, up 10% in the past 12 months. But with little increase in the past two years.

But here’s the thing. How many house sales in Catherine Hill Bay in the past year?

Just 10. Which means the median house price data is rubbish.

If you look at the PropTrack graph for the change in its median house price over the past five years, the figures jump all over the place – because there are so few sales.

The message is: if you torture statistics enough, they’ll tell you anything you want to hear.

But smart investors will not base a big purchase decision on this kind of data.

It’s a common myth that an investment property can’t have both strong rental yields and capital growth.

Our data shows us time and time again that BOTH outcomes are possible, and no report illustrates it better than ‘The National Top 10 Positive Cashflow Hotspots Report’.

Investing in real estate is all about timing and choosing the right locations that promise substantial returns.

Our latest edition of the National Top 10 Positive Cashflow Hotspots report reveals the insights you need to make informed decisions and maximise your investment potential.

Our Previous Scorecard Our tips from last year had some remarkable growth in both property values and rental yields in these suburbs, reinforcing their attractiveness as investment destinations.

Here's a glimpse of the standout performers:

Armadale (W.A.):

12-month Capital Growth: 31.30%

Rental Growth: 28.20%

Withers (W.A.):

12-month Property Growth: 30.70%

12-month Rental Growth: 12.50%

Elizabeth Downs (S.A.):

12-month Property Growth: 23.50%

12-month Rental Growth: 16.70%

Orelia (W.A.):

12-month Property Growth: 25.70%

12-month Rental Growth: 14.90%

Berserker (QLD):

12-month Property Growth: 16.70%

12-month Rental Growth: 7.50%

Grab your copy today

https://www.hotspotting.com.au/product/national-top-10-positive-cashflow-hotspots/