Full Episode - New Polling Shows BIG Shift Toward Democrats + Why Putin Won’t Stop, And Why Ukraine Won’t Settle

Chuck Todd breaks down why Donald Trump’s sudden push for a Ukraine “peace deal” may be more about political retreat than diplomacy, especially as Europe now shoulders most of the war’s cost—leaving Trump with diminished leverage abroad and a base deeply skeptical of foreign interventions. Chuck digs into new polling that shows a steady and significant shift toward Democrats, with a widening generic ballot advantage and Trump’s approval continuing to fall, suggesting the midterms—and even the Senate—are unexpectedly in play. He explores how Trump’s attempts to manipulate the economy could backfire, how a potential “AI bubble” could further weaken him, and why GOP divisions are poised to intensify. Plus, an update on the California governor’s race, where a field of lackluster Democratic contenders has allowed Republicans to overperform, raising questions about whether bigger names—or Rick Caruso—will jump into a race long dominated by the shadows of Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom. Then, Chuck is joined by Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Anne Applebaum for a sweeping, unsparing look at the state of the Russia–Ukraine war and the global democratic landscape it threatens. Applebaum breaks down whether a ceasefire is even plausible this year, given Vladimir Putin’s unwavering war aims, the murky negotiators involved in back-channel talks, and Trump’s unusually warm posture toward the Kremlin. She details why Ukrainians refuse to accept a “kick the can” peace deal, how corruption scandals are playing out domestically, and the way drones, energy strikes, and a collapsing Russian economy are reshaping the battlefield. From mysterious elite deaths to China’s strategic support, Applebaum outlines the brittle yet dangerous architecture sustaining Putin’s regime. The conversation widens into a broader examination of the worldwide struggle between democracy and autocracy—from Trump’s Venezuela maneuverings to Saudi Arabia’s complicated role, from Silicon Valley’s unchecked power to Europe’s scramble to recalibrate its alliances. Applebaum warns that the U.S. walking away from Ukraine would reverberate far beyond Eastern Europe, and she explains why the speed and scale of Trump’s attacks on democratic norms have raised historic alarm. It’s a candid, far-reaching assessment of the forces shaping global stability—and the stakes ahead. Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. Go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:00 Trump’s “peace deal” may be his attempt to walk away from Ukraine 06:00 Europe is funding bulk of the war, Trump has less leverage 07:15 Trump’s plan to make Europe foot bill is working, but diminishes influence 09:15 If Trump gave rationale for removing Maduro, he’d have more credibility 11:00 Trump’s base doesn’t want foreign military interventions 12:30 Polling shows Democrats with large generic ballot advantage 15:30 Every poll has moved in the Democrats direction, and lower Trump approval 17:30 Donald Trump will try to pull levers to fix economy, could make it worse 19:00 Democrats have a huge advantage going into the midterms 19:45 Democrats need a 6-7 point generic advantage to win house 20:15 If current polling holds, the senate is in play 23:00 Applying election and polling trends nationwide, Dems could blowout midterms 24:30 Democrats unpopularity turned out to be meaningless in 2025 elections 26:00 Bad is going to get worse for Trump, GOP will be further divided 27:45 “AI Bubble” could sink Trump if it pops 29:00 Update on the California governor’s race 29:45 Democratic voters crave optimism, Tom Steyer doesn’t offer it 31:30 Candidates for CA governor feel like their all “Tier 2” candidates 34:00 Jerry Brown & Gavin Newsom have hovered over CA politics for decades 36:00 There are only two prominent Republican candidates in CA 37:00 Dem candidates are so weak, GOP candidates performing well 38:00 Will Rick Caruso run for mayor of LA or governor of CA? 40:30 There should be some bigger names jumping into the race 46:00 Anne Applebaum joins the Chuck ToddCast 47:45 Will we get a ceasefire this year between Russia & Ukraine? 48:15 Putin has never said he’ll give up original war aims 49:30 Serious concerns about negotiators involved in secret peace deal 50:15 Talks have mostly...