Forward Guidance

By: Blockworks
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  • Summary

  • The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
    384141 Blockworks 2021
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Economics Personal Finance Politics & Government
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Episodes
  • The Strong Data Is A Mirage | Weekly Roundup

    The Strong Data Is A Mirage | Weekly Roundup
    May 2 2025
    This week, we discuss the strong jobs report and why next month is the time to look for weakness, the tariff strategy and how it’s bleeding into economic data, and people missing the forest for the trees in the Trump agenda. We also delve into the Treasury QRA, measuring Treasury market stress and why an intervention right now is a political decision, navigating bear market rallies, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NMv_qEEEV88_9ZH8epVSdwfpuv8jUgFn/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) NFP & Labor Market (10:31) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo) (11:26) Tariffs & Economic Data (17:38) Tariff Strategy (19:59) Unpacking the Trump Agenda (31:21) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo) (32:38) Treasury QRA & Buybacks (38:18) Treasury Market Stress & Demand (44:52) Market Structure & Bear Market Rallies (51:41) Risk Exposure is a Spectrum (53:47) MSTR Outlook — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    57 mins
  • Tariffs Are Reversing U.S Dollar Capital Flows | Bob Elliott

    Tariffs Are Reversing U.S Dollar Capital Flows | Bob Elliott
    Apr 30 2025
    In this episode, Bob Elliott joins the show to discuss the reversal of U.S Dollar capital flows after the announcement of Trump's tariffs. We deep dive into the U.S balance of payments problem, the changing economic order, why the U.S Dollar continues to get sold & how to structure a portfolio in this environment. Enjoy! -- Follow Bob: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx -- Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv -- At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ -- Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) The Changing U.S Economic Order (07:56) The Reversal Of U.S Dollar Capital Flows (12:38) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (13:47) Why Did The U.S Outperform Pre-2025? (18:05) Trump Tariffs = A Weaker Dollar, Assets & Growth (23:45) Is The U.S In A Balance Of Payments Crisis? (28:41) What Is The Bond Market Signaling? (32:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (33:44) The End Of U.S Exceptionalism (41:10) A New Regime For Markets? (43:35) The U.S Economic Supply Shock (47:03) Structuring Alpha vs Beta Portfolios -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    53 mins
  • Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup

    Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup
    Apr 25 2025
    This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we’re seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy! — Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Beware the Doom Loop (13:21) Ondo Ad (13:48) Dollar Weakness or Normalization? (16:15) Dollar & Bonds (23:13) Hard Data & The Doom Loop (25:06) Real Rates & Inflation (31:48) Ondo Ad (32:17) Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored (38:13) Trading The Current Regime (47:24) Gold Market (49:18) Having Perspective In Fast-Moving Markets (55:06) Can the Fed Rescue Growth? (59:32) Inflation is the Bigger Problem (09:30) What Will the Fed Do? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    1 hr and 16 mins
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Profile Image for Dave S.

A must have for serious investors

With some of the smartest guests in Macro and all other areas of investment, Jack asks higher level questions that don't insult the intelligence of the listener or his guests. More frequently than not, Forward Guidance reveals gaps in my understanding and heaps more homework on my "must learn" list. If I could only have three podcasts, this would be one to include. Valuable.

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