Fed on hold for how long? RBA hike even more likely

Thursday 29th January 2026

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The Fed kept rates on hold, with two dissenters calling for a 25bp cut, but the real question for investors is how long the central bank stays on pause after three cuts already. NAB’s Sally Auld unpacked a statement that kept the door open to further easing but gave no hint of timing, against stubborn inflation and falling jobless claims. Australia’s Q4 CPI surprised on the upside to many, heightening expectations for an RBA hike next week, yet yields slipped. Geopolitics simmered, with US naval deployments raising questions about Iran and adding fuel to the gold rally. Currency chatter centred on yen intervention rumours — quashed by Scott Bessent — while the Bank of Canada held steady amid US trade uncertainty. And with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the bell, markets braced for another test of the AI‑driven tech narrative.

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