Fed Fractures & Holiday Futures: The 2025 Market Wrap

In this week's episode, our experts discuss recent market activity, economic data delays due to the recent government shutdown, and the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut. The Fed’s decision was marked by rare dissent, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and future policy direction, with only one rate cut projected for 2026. We analyze the implications for credit markets, the US dollar, and the evolving role of artificial intelligence in corporate strategy, noting shifts in tech stock performance and the importance of distinguishing winners and losers in the AI space. The conversation also draws parallels to past market bubbles, emphasizing the value of diversification and caution as the year ends. Be sure to review our 2026 Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change to see what key themes we believe will most impact the economy in 2026.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:27 - Recent market activity is discussed, including delays in economic data due to a government shutdown, updates on unemployment claims, and the job openings report.

03:26 - Cindy Honcharenko summarizes the Fed’s decision to lower rates for the third time in 2025, the rare split vote among Committee members, and implications for inflation and the labor market.

08:10 - The panel analyzes the Fed’s outlook, credit spreads, risk appetite, and the importance of understanding why the Fed is cutting rates.

13:29 - Discussion in recent trends in the US dollar, commodity prices, and the impact on corporate America.

15:45 - The panel covers the impact of AI on stock performance, recent news from Oracle and Broadcom, and the evolving tech landscape.

Additional Resources

Read: 2026 Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change

Rewatch: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change

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