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Excess Returns

Excess Returns

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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.905628 Economía Finanzas Personales
Episodios
  • The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next

    The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next
    Apr 3 2026

    This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a potential change in leadership. Katie Stockton joins the show to break down what recent signals in the S&P 500, oil, gold, and sector rotation are telling us about where markets may be headed next.

    We cover the implications of a new monthly MACD sell signal, the importance of market breadth and leadership, and how investors can interpret shifting trends across asset classes using a disciplined technical framework.


    More on Katie's Strategies

    https://www.fairleadstrategies.com/


    Topics Covered:

    • Why a new monthly MACD sell signal may signal a longer, choppier market phase

    • The difference between fast corrections and slow grind bear phases

    • Key S&P 500 support levels and what a breakdown could mean for downside risk

    • How technical indicators help filter noise in headline-driven markets

    • The breakout in crude oil and what it signals about a potential new cycle

    • Whether sharp price moves are sustainable or likely to reverse

    • Understanding overbought and oversold conditions across different timeframes

    • Why mega-cap weakness is critical to overall market direction

    • The shift from growth to value and what it means for investors

    • Sector rotation trends and where leadership is emerging in 2025

    • What gold’s recent run and emerging weakness signal for safe haven assets

    • How a systematic, technical approach can help manage drawdowns and re-entry timing

    Timestamps:
    00:00 Intro
    04:18 S&P 500 momentum deterioration and MACD sell signal
    08:09 Key support levels and downside scenarios for equities
    12:53 Crude oil breakout and implications for a new cycle
    16:01 What overbought and oversold really mean in practice
    20:04 Mega-cap weakness and shifting market leadership
    24:41 Concentration risk in investor portfolios
    27:52 Value vs growth rotation and cycle dynamics
    32:13 Market breadth and confirmation signals
    36:19 Moving averages, death cross, and trend interpretation
    39:56 Inside the TAC ETF and sector rotation strategy
    44:04 Gold trends and why consolidation may be next
    47:00 Key signals to watch going forward
    Más Menos
    49 m
  • Michael Mauboussin | AI, Base Rates, and Investing in the New Economy

    Michael Mauboussin | AI, Base Rates, and Investing in the New Economy
    Apr 2 2026
    In this inaugural episode of our new show, The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu, we explore how AI, intangible assets, and unprecedented capital investment are reshaping the future of markets. Michael Mauboussin joins Kai to break down why today’s AI expectations may be historically unmatched—and what that means for investors trying to assess risk, returns, and who ultimately captures value.Subscribe on SpotifySubscribe on AppleThe conversation moves from base rates and AI growth expectations to competitive dynamics, capital cycles, and the fundamental shift toward intangible-driven business models that are changing how we think about valuation, moats, and market structure.Papers and Resources Discussed:Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Futurehttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/institutional-investor/insights/consilient-observer/bayes-and-base-rates.htmlThe Impact of Intangibles on Base Rateshttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_theimpactofintangiblesonbaserates.pdfMeasuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creationhttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_measuringthemoat.pdfOne Job: Expectations and the Role of Intangible Investmentshttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_onejob.pdfCapitalism Without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economyhttps://books.google.com/books/about/Capitalism_without_Capital.html?id=J3SYDwAAQBAJA Better Estimate of Internally Generated Intangible Capitalhttps://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01703Underestimating the Red Queen: Measuring Growth and Maintenance Investmentshttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_underestimatingtheredqueen.pdfExplaining the Recent Failure of Value Investinghttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3442539Guest Links:Michael Mauboussin TwitterTopics Covered:Why OpenAI’s projected growth would be unprecedented in market historyHow base rates provide a reality check on AI expectationsThe role of diffusion models and adoption curves in forecasting technologyWhy massive capital investment in AI may follow past boom-bust cyclesLessons from large-scale infrastructure projects and why timelines breakHow intangible assets change the distribution of business outcomesThe rise of “fat tails” and why more companies now massively win or failWho captures value in AI across the stack from chips to applicationsWhy competition may drive AI profits toward consumers, not producersHow accounting distorts intangible investment and misleads investorsTimestamps:00:00 Intro and OpenAI growth expectations vs historical base rates04:32 Why no company has ever achieved 100%+ sustained growth at scale08:47 Lessons from megaprojects and AI infrastructure buildouts13:18 Intangible assets and why outcomes now have fatter tails18:36 Why big tech is growing faster than historical precedents23:52 Where value accrues in AI and why consumers may benefit most28:21 Barriers to entry in AI including capital, talent, and scale32:47 The risk of overinvestment and historical parallels to past bubbles37:26 Game theory and competitive signaling in AI capital spending41:58 Why investment returns—not “asset light” narratives—drive value46:12 How accounting fails to capture intangible investment properly50:44 Breaking down SG&A into maintenance vs investment spending55:03 Why understanding reinvestment and ROI is the core investing skill59:18 Final thoughts on uncertainty, expectations, and base rates in AI
    Más Menos
    1 h y 2 m
  • The Stagflation Regime | Aahan Menon on What Works When Stocks and Bonds Don’t

    The Stagflation Regime | Aahan Menon on What Works When Stocks and Bonds Don’t
    Mar 31 2026

    This episode of Excess Returns features Aahan Menon of Prometheus Research breaking down the growing risk of an inflation shock driven by energy markets and what it means for investors. The discussion explores how a potential shift toward stagflation could challenge traditional stock and bond portfolios and why commodities, trend following, and systematic frameworks may be better suited for the current environment.

    Prometheus Research
    https://www.prometheus-research.com

    Aahan Menon Twitter
    https://x.com/@AahanPrometheus

    • Why the current inflation shock may be one of the most significant in recent history

    • How oil prices and geopolitical conflict are reshaping macro expectations

    • The growing risk of a stagflationary environment and what it means for portfolios

    • Why traditional 60/40 portfolios may struggle in sustained inflation regimes

    • How expected returns differ across equities, bonds, commodities, and FX

    • Why commodities and energy markets offer the most attractive opportunities today

    • The role of backwardation and supply shocks in driving commodity returns

    • Why consensus earnings expectations may be too optimistic relative to macro reality

    • How inflation flows through the economy from energy to consumer demand

    • The Fed’s dilemma between inflation control and economic slowdown

    • A simple rule for when to own treasuries based on inflation trends

    • Why correlations across asset classes are breaking down in crisis environments

    • How systematic investors manage risk when markets are driven by news and geopolitics

    • The case for trend following as a core portfolio strategy

    • How Aahan’s free trend system works across stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin

    • The behavioral advantages of systematic investing during volatile markets

    • Risks of trend following including whipsaws and false signals

    • How portfolio construction is evolving to include crisis protection and energy overlays

    00:00 Inflation shock and why equities and bonds may struggle
    01:03 Setting up the macro backdrop before the oil shock
    03:12 Labor market slowdown vs strong GDP divergence
    04:45 Consumer spending driven by de-saving
    05:35 Oil-driven inflation shock as a recession catalyst
    07:32 Preparing for stagflation vs disinflationary growth
    09:18 Why commodities outperform in inflation regimes
    10:45 Expected returns framework across asset classes
    12:05 Why commodities and FX offer the best opportunities
    14:05 How commodity carry and backwardation work
    16:42 Trend following and commodities as pro-cyclical exposures
    17:43 Ranking expected returns: energy, FX, bonds, equities
    18:51 Challenges of systematic investing in news-driven markets
    20:15 Extreme correlations and oil dominating asset pricing
    23:47 Earnings expectations vs macro reality gap
    28:30 Why the Fed faces an impossible policy tradeoff
    30:00 Real-time CPI estimates and inflation pressure
    32:00 A rule for when to own treasuries based on CPI
    37:30 Stock-bond correlation regime shifts
    39:34 How the trend following system works
    45:10 Benefits and limitations of trend strategies
    Más Menos
    58 m
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