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South Korea had been on the side of the Fed, sticking with interest rates opting to see about trade war "uncertainty" before doing anything. That lasted all of four weeks. The list of central banks able to sit by and watch CPI has thinned down to just the one Mr. Powell runs. And the update to Q1 GDP in the US holds the key as to why.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Bank of Korea Flags More Rate Cuts to Come as Tariffs Hit Growth
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bok-cuts-rate-to-cushion-economy-from-tariffs-political-turmoil

CNBC Bank of Korea lowers interest rates for the fourth time, flags more cuts ahead
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/29/south-korea-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-.html

ChosunBiz Bank of Korea lowers interest rate to 2.50%, signals possibility of further cuts
https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/05/29/E5KPW2LQYFGPRF5EM5G3RUM4XQ/

Bloomberg Banxico Sees Growth of 0.1% This Year, Rules Out Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bank-lending-to-private-credit-funds-swells-145-in-five-years

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Germany. France. New Zealand. Singapore. ECB. Rising unemployment. Falling employment. Lowering interest rates. Technical recession. Historically low territory up next. There is almost no one left in the official world in the same thinking as the Fed as the world more clearly and completely tilts against "inflation."

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

WSJ Germany’s Jobless Numbers Tick Higher
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/germanys-jobless-numbers-tick-higher-27a99b18

Le Monde France's great consumption slump
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2024/10/10/france-s-great-consumption-slump_6728864_19.html

Bloomberg ECB Faces Greater Risk Inflation Will Undershoot 2%, Simkus Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-26/ecb-faces-greater-risk-inflation-will-undershoot-2-simkus-says

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The Reserve Bank of Australia had resisted cutting rates, being the last major central bank to do so. This week, RBA not only cut again officials confirmed discussing a fifty. Plus the Swedes, who were supposed to have been done, are back at it again. Race to the bottom heats up again.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Bloomberg RBA Ready to Respond If Needed to Trade Shock, Hauser Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-22/rba-s-hauser-sees-us-china-trade-dispute-aiding-australian-firms

S&P Global Eurozone PMIs May 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f4672a7ff89744e096c5e9497d2e5362

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The economy weakens and everyone looks to the Fed or any central bank to cut policy rates. But why? They call it stimulus but the real reason is nothing you've ever heard. In fact, Fed officials intentionally lied for decades to keep this quiet. You don't have to take my word for it; hear it from the maestro's mouth as we go down the rabbit hole of interest rates.

Eurodollar University's Make it Make Cents

FOMC March 1991
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdf

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LT rates are up and you know what that means: get ready for a flood of claims deficits suddenly now matter. They don't (sadly), at least not for bonds, and we know they don't because not all the yield curve maturities are seeing selling. The one spot on the curve you always want to watch is sending another major warning, and it isn't too many Treasuries.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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We have more confirmation of a huge and unusual rise in bank lending to this offshore category. It parallels other similar corroboration which raises several thorny issues, leaving us with two broad interpretations for what this really means. With new data becoming available, it raises the stakes for a possible next time.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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While we wait to see if the Swiss National Bank opts for zero or negative policy rates next month, its chief Martin Schlegel had a lot to say yesterday about a range of topics, including negative prices, Treasury bonds, and global risks. Jamie Dimon then today chimed in today cautioning that stocks and risk markets are ready for heightened credit risks. One reason why is volatility in repo, where TIC data shows a huge increasing in offshore resales heading into everything April.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Dimon Warns Markets Are Underestimating Geopolitical, Inflation Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/jpmorgan-s-dimon-warns-against-complacency-amid-mounting-risks

Bloomberg Swiss Inflation Risks Falling Below Zero in Individual Months This Year, Schlegel Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/snb-chief-sees-subzero-inflation-in-individual-months-this-year

Bloomberg SNB President Schlegel Sees No Alternative to US Treasuries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/snb-president-schlegel-sees-no-alternative-to-us-treasuries

Bloomberg Singapore Central Bank Chief Says US Dollar Assets Irreplaceable
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-20/singapore-central-bank-chief-says-us-dollar-assets-irreplaceable

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In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds or the economy? It's not what the mainstream thinks it does.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg What the US Losing Its Last AAA Credit Rating Means
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/us-lost-moody-s-aaa-credit-rating-what-s-at-stake-for-markets

S&P Global August 5, 2011
https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6802837

Fitch August 1, 2023
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023

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