Demystifying Prediction Markets Beyond Volume Charts

In today’s episode, we're unpacking what’s really driving prediction markets and how to think about them as information and distribution systems, not just gambling venues.

We discuss:

• Polymarket vs Kalshi: onchain vs offchain tradeoffs
• Distribution advantages and partnerships
• Liquidity, market making, and arbitrage dynamics
• Why volume alone is misleading
• Sports betting vs long-duration markets
• Fees, incentives, and wash trading concerns
• U.S. regulation and launch implications
• Prediction markets as news and truth-discovery tools
• The long arc from Augur to today

And much more—enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:50) Prediction markets return
(05:16) Offchain vs onchain
(09:37) Kalshi distribution edge
(13:23) US legality questions
(17:50) Market timing mechanics
(22:19) Market creation debates
(30:19) API delays and arbitrage
(32:55) Liquidity and market makers
(34:27) User growth questions
(36:00) Prediction markets as news
(39:11) From Augur to now
(40:07) Outro
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Content links:
Dashboard:

https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets

https://brier.fyi/

https://calibration.city/calibration

Slides: https://bit.ly/45Hlzxa

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Content links:
Jobs board:

https://bit.ly/4sEVMj3

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https://x.com/hildobby
https://x.com/0xBoxer
https://x.com/sui414

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The Indexed Podcast discusses hot topics, trendy metrics and chart crimes in the crypto industry, with a new episode every 1st and 3rd Thursday of the month, brought to you by wizards @hildobby @0xBoxer @sui414.

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DISCLAIMER: All information presented here should not be relied upon as legal, financial, investment, tax or even life advice. The views expressed in the podcast are not representative of hosts' employers views. We are acting independently of our respective professional roles.