This episode, presented by the German Maritime Centre, examines the profound interplay between climate change and maritime security within a shifting geopolitical landscape. The conversation uncovers how environmental pressures are increasingly influencing global trade, security policies, and industrial competitiveness, drawing on Dr. Kira Vinke’s extensive fieldwork and policy expertise.

Dr Kira Vinke is Deputy Research Director at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and Head of the Centre for Climate and Foreign Policy. With nearly a decade’s experience at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, she has also advised Germany’s International Development Agency and the Asian Development Bank. Her research includes fieldwork in South Asia, the Pacific, and the Sahel – regions especially vulnerable to climate stress. Dr Vinke serves on Germany’s Federal Academy for Security Policy advisory board and contributes to various humanitarian and climate-focused organisations. Her recent work bridges rigorous science and policy at the nexus of climate and security.

The episode explores how climate change and geopolitics have become inseparable, with climate impacts eroding livelihoods and destabilising regions, particularly where governance is fragile. Dr Vinke explains how climate stress can widen societal divides, emphasising the importance of addressing these linked challenges.

Attention turns to the maritime sphere, investigating how rising sea levels, extreme storms, and the melting Arctic sea ice affect trade routes, fisheries, and coastal communities. Dr Vinke notes that disruptions to essential chokepoints like the Panama and Suez Canals highlight the vulnerability of global supply chains.

The discussion critically addresses the IMO’s stalled emissions regulations, examining the geopolitical pushback led by the US and its implications for international cooperation. Dr Vinke warns that continued reliance on fossil fuels, especially amid American energy dominance, may jeopardise both economic stability and climate targets, while China’s surge in renewables shapes future competitiveness.

Dr Vinke offers actionable advice to business leaders, urging them to consult regional climate projections and adopt scenario planning in order to bolster resilience amid ongoing uncertainty. She advocates staying committed to climate targets, warning that abandoning them provides only short-term relief at the cost of long-term competitiveness and societal risk.

Looking ahead, Dr Vinke presents two scenarios for the next decade: one in which the world pivots towards climate neutrality, protecting vital systems despite inevitable losses, and an alternative future marked by irreversible environmental damage and societal upheaval. She maintains an optimistic outlook, believing that collective capacity and foresight can deliver positive outcomes if action is taken.

Ultimately, this episode demonstrates that business leaders cannot afford to ignore the entwined risks of climate change and geopolitics; the choices made now will define resilience, competitiveness, and global stability in years to come.

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