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This podcast breaks down one specific Over 1.5 Goals strategy and explains why it works when most people get this market wrong.

Over 1.5 isn’t about backing goals blindly.
It’s about understanding match behaviour, timing, and where the market misprices probability.

In this video, you’ll learn:

• What actually makes an Over 1.5 Goals setup strong
• Why short odds don’t always mean high probability
• The key data points that matter (and the ones that don’t)
• How this strategy fits into our wider Top 10 Football Strategies series
• How traders test and refine this idea instead of guessing

This isn’t a tip.
It’s a framework you can test, track, and improve.

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Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

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Most football traders assume Betfair has the goal markets nailed.

The odds move.
The clock ticks.
The prices “must” be right.

But that assumption is where most traders go wrong.

In this episode, I break down how Betfair actually prices goals, why time decay plays a bigger role than real match pressure, and where the market consistently lags behind what’s happening on the pitch.

You’ll learn:

• How goal prices are really formed pre-match and in-play
• Why 0–0 scorelines often create false value
• How pressure, xG, and big chances expose mispriced markets
• Why profitable traders bet against bad pricing, not outcomes

This is essential viewing if you trade:

• Over goals markets
• Lay the Draw
• Late goal strategies

And if you want to stop guessing and start trading with evidence, I’ll also show you how to use data to turn these ideas into a repeatable edge.

Support the show

Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity

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Laying short-priced favourites is one of the fastest ways to blow up a Betfair bank…

Unless you understand what you’re actually doing.

Most traders lay favourites because it feels clever:
“They’re too short. They won’t win every time.”

But that’s not a strategy.

In this episode, I explain when laying short-priced favourites makes sense, why timing matters more than pre-match opinions, and how to think about this market like a trader instead of a gambler.

We’ll cover:

• Why short odds punish bad decision-making
• What a “misprice” looks like in-play
• The game states where favourites are vulnerable
• The mindset shift that stops you forcing bad lays

Support the show

Twitter: @BetfairTC
Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity