Australia in the World Podcast Por Darren Lim arte de portada

Australia in the World

Australia in the World

De: Darren Lim
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A discussion of the most important news and issues in international affairs through a uniquely Australian lens. Hosted by Darren Lim, in memory of Allan Gyngell.Copyright 2019 All rights reserved. Ciencia Política Política y Gobierno
Episodios
  • Ep. 182: Another wild 48 hours on Iran, plus the Australian lens

    Ep. 182: Another wild 48 hours on Iran, plus the Australian lens
    Apr 1 2026
    In the second episode of the week recorded just 48 hours after the last one (around 12pm on Wed 1 April), Darren is joined once again by Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC to talk through what, again, has been a wild few days. In two Truth Social posts barely twelve hours apart, President Trump threatened to destroy Iranian desalination plants — a move legal experts describe as a war crime — and then told allies to "go get your own oil" signalling the United States may end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Taken together, these posts suggest something seismic: the effective repudiation of the Carter Doctrine, which since 1980 has been the foundational premise of U.S. security strategy in the Gulf. But then Darren and Stephen turn to a long overdue conversation about what this means for Australia and the region. They cover: The alliance. Australia has maintained carefully calibrated support for the U.S. strikes, but if Trump walks away from Hormuz, the question for Canberra shifts from "will we join an American-led operation?" to "will we join a deal with Tehran that Washington might hate?" Trump is effectively telling allies to solve a problem he created — but may condemn whatever solution they find.The region. Singapore's foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan has framed this as an Asian crisis driven by an American war. Stephen reports on the fury across Southeast Asia, the limits of what countries like Singapore and the Philippines can actually do in response, and why — despite the rage — the short-term strategic calculus holding these alliances together may persist even as long-term trust fractures.Energy statecraft. Bloomberg reported this week that Penny Wong and Madeleine King are leveraging Australia's LNG exports in conversations with Asian partners. Stephen unpacks the competing signals from inside government — one camp talking about "bargaining chips," another insisting Australia is simply being a reliable supplier — and why the audience for much of this messaging may be domestic rather than international. Darren and Stephen explore the broader question of whether Australia needs a new toolkit for directing energy flows in a crisis.The Pacific. Pacific Island nations run almost entirely on diesel and face an existential crisis if supply disruptions continue into May and June. Stephen reports that Canberra is war-gaming options — from redirecting aid funding to sharing physical diesel supplies to folding the Pacific into bilateral energy deals with Singapore and others.The China-Pakistan five-point peace initiative, announced yesterday, is the first time a major power has proposed a concrete pathway to end the war. Darren raises Adam Tooze's provocative FT column on a "blueprint for Chinese global hegemony" — mocked and criticised, but capturing something real about the sheer demand for someone to lead. Darren and Stephen grapple with whether this crisis could pull China into a systemic stabiliser role it has never sought and may not want — and what that would mean for a world order already through the looking glass. The episode concludes with both noting that the Prime Minister is due to address the nation in hours, and Trump is scheduled to speak overnight — meaning everything discussed may be overtaken by events before listeners press play. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Trump Truth Social post threatening to destroy Iranian power plants, oil wells, and desalination plants (30 March 2026): https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/30/trump-iran-strikes-escalation-00850005 Trump Truth Social post: "Go get your own oil" (31 March 2026): https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-01/trump-anger-at-allies-as-hegseth-visits-mideast/106519152 Wall Street Journal — "Trump Tells Aides He's Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz" by Alexander Ward and Meridith McGraw (31 March 2026): https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-ee950ad4 Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan interview with Reuters (23 March 2026): https://www.mfa.gov.sg/newsroom/press-statements-transcripts-and-photos/transcript-of-minister-for-foreign-affairs-dr-vivian-balakrishnan-s-interview-with-reuters-global-managing-editor-for-world-news-mark-bendeich--23-march-2026/ The New Yorker — "Trump, Iran, and the Shadow of Suez" by Ishaan Tharoor (30 March 2026): https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/trump-iran-and-the-shadow-of-suez Stephen Wertheim (Carnegie Endowment) on the purpose of U.S. military role in the Middle East — quoted in The New Yorker The Economist — “Refine and dandy: Iran’s war bounty”, The Intelligence (podcast), 31 March: https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2026/03/31/refine-and-dandy-irans-war-bounty Bloomberg — "Australia Aims to Use LNG Clout to Secure Asian Fuel Supplies" by Keira ...
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    1 h y 3 m
  • Ep. 181: An even more dangerous phase looms in Iran

    Ep. 181: An even more dangerous phase looms in Iran
    Mar 30 2026

    Now in its fifth week, the Iran war may be about to enter its most dangerous phase. In a shorter update this episode, Darren assesses what he sees as four important dynamics as President Trump’s new extended 6 April deadline approaches: (1) the collapse of negotiations and the simultaneous buildup of U.S. ground forces in the region; (2) why seizing Kharg Island or Iran’s enriched uranium may be tactically feasible but strategically self-defeating; (3) the widening of the conflict as the Houthis enter the war and the economic damage compounds beyond recovery; and (4) why the regime change that is actually occurring in Tehran — toward a more radical, IRGC-dominated system — cuts directly against the logic of further escalation.

    If you've been following this series, this is the episode where the threads of the past month converge on a single question: does Washington recognise the strategic trap it is walking into, or does it fall in?

    Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

    Relevant links

    Dan Lamothe, "Pentagon Prepares for Weeks of Ground Operations in Iran," The Washington Post, 29 March 2026: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/28/trump-iran-ground-troops-marines/

    Alexander Ward et al, "Trump Weighs Military Operation to Extract Iran's Uranium," The Wall Street Journal, 30 March 2026: https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-weighs-military-operation-to-extract-irans-uranium-37427c8b

    Edward Luce, "Donald Trump Says US Could 'Take the Oil in Iran,'" Financial Times, 30 March 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1

    Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz, twitter / x profile: https://x.com/citrinowicz
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    15 m
  • Ep. 180: How will the Iran conflict end?

    Ep. 180: How will the Iran conflict end?
    Mar 22 2026
    Three weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren looks to international relations theory — particularly the bargaining and war termination frameworks associated with James Fearon — to explain why this conflict is so resistant to ending. He organises his thinking around two conditions for war termination: the existence of a mutually acceptable deal, and a credible mechanism for enforcing it. Neither condition is met, and the war is actively making both harder to achieve. Both sides are pursuing cost imposition, but with incompatible visions of what peace looks like. The US is destroying Iran’s military capacity; Iran is weaponising the Strait of Hormuz and attacking Gulf energy infrastructure. Darren examines why Trump’s coercive credibility has been undermined by the South Pars episode, why Iran’s energy war may be hardening rather than softening its neighbours’ resolve, and what Oman’s foreign minister’s extraordinary public intervention reveals about Gulf anger at both Iran and the United States. The episode offers two speculative theories for how the war might end — one centring on Trump’s psychology and capacity for narrative reinvention, the other on whether China could help solve the credible commitment problem by offering Iran something the US cannot. It closes with a reflection on what it means for analysts, governments, and markets when the most consequential variable in the system is a single unpredictable leader. A postscript addresses Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, issued hours before recording, threatening to destroy Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links The Economist, “There is plenty of scope for the Iran war to intensify,” 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/03/19/there-is-plenty-of-scope-for-the-iran-war-to-intensify Malcolm Moore, Rachel Millard and Verity Ratcliffe, “‘Armageddon scenario’ for gas markets as Qatar hit by missiles,” Financial Times, 19 March 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/5b66d91f-f94a-4ea1-b90f-ce62ccb15d50 James Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War,” International Organization, 49(3), 1995: https://web.stanford.edu/group/fearon-research/cgi-bin/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Rationalist-Explanations-for-War.pdf RAND Corporation, Theories of Victory, Perspectives PEA1743-1, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA1743-1.html Brynn Tannehill, “Why the Iran War Could Last Far Longer Than Either Side Wants to Admit,” Byline Times, 20 March 2026: https://bylinetimes.com/2026/03/20/why-the-iran-war-could-last-far-longer-than-either-side-wants-to-admit/ Yaroslav Trofimov, “Iran Believes It’s Winning — and Wants a Steep Price to End the War,” Wall Street Journal, 20 March 2026: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-negotiations-demands-85555522 Adam Tooze and Cameron Abadi, Ones and Tooze podcast, “Economic Impact of Iran War,” 21 March 2026: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckRRxpoUoPc Thomas Wright, “The Disappearing Off-Ramp in Iran,” The Atlantic, 17 March 2026: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/03/iran-victory-trump/686411/ Badr Albusaidi, “America’s friends must help extricate it from an unlawful war,” The Economist, 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2026/03/18/americas-friends-must-help-extricate-it-from-an-unlawful-war The Economist, “Operation Blind Fury,” 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/19/war-in-iran-is-making-donald-trump-weaker-and-angrier Jake Sullivan and John Finer, The Long Game podcast, Week 3 episode (interview with Helima Croft), 21 March 2026: https://staytuned.substack.com/p/transcript-the-iran-war-energy-crisis David Sanger, “Trump Is Finally Eyeing an Exit From Iran. But Will He Take It?” New York Times, 21 March 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/us/politics/trump-iran-offramp.html
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    49 m
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