55: A Chief Economist Projects Inflation and Rising Interest Rates, with Ryan Severino, Chief Economist, JLL

Meet Ryan Severino:

Ryan Severino is the Chief Economist at JLL. He is also an adjunct professor at Columbia University and New York University. Previously, he was a Senior Economist and Director of Research at Reis and an Associate Director of Research at MetLife Real Estate Investments. He received a Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Japanese, and Economics from Georgetown University, and an MA in International Finance and Economics from Columbia University.

Key Insights:

Ryan Severino approaches the economy with a big picture perspective, analyzing the implications of global trends. 

• Rising Interest Rates. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to increase the cost of capital. This disincentivizes organizations from borrowing money, which will tamp down the demand side of the economy. The Federal Reserve can only influence the demand side of the economy to decrease inflation. (4:53)
• Demand-side Inflation. There have been disruptions in supply chains; however, Ryan points to increases in demand as the main driver for inflation. Government spending, low interest rates, pent up savings by consumers, and a tight labor market has created a strong demand situation. (14:25)
• How Technology Impacts Economy. The pandemic only exacerbated an existing labor shortage, due to America’s aging demographics. One way to address this is to invest in technology, like AI or machine learning, to make the existing labor supply more productive. (24:28)

Relevant Links:

• Read “Economic calculus: The mathematical study of continuous change? A fitting description for the current U.S. economy” by Ryan Severino
• Read “Powering through! From the pandemic to geopolitical events, parts of the U.S. economy are certainly challenged. Can CRE rise above?” by Ryan Severino
• Follow Ryan on Twitter