In Episode 90 of Trade Splaining, Ardian Mollabeqiri and Robert Skidmore are back to unpack how geopolitics, energy markets and global shipping disruptions are finding their way into the everyday economy — from oil prices and port congestion to pain au chocolat, ice cream cones and Aperol Spritzes.

We start with the Strait of Hormuz, where fears of an oil price shock ran into a more complicated reality. China’s role as a “swing importer,” existing oil supply gluts, demand destruction, rerouting and refinery adaptation all helped explain why markets did not quite melt down — even as the risks around energy security and logistics remain very real.

Then we follow the supply chain into breakfast and dessert. Why is a pain au chocolat more expensive? Why can an ice cream cone cost $8? The answer is not one input but many — wheat, butter, cocoa, diesel, refrigeration, labour, packaging and energy all moving in uncomfortable directions at once. Globalization, it turns out, is now coming for your snack budget.

This episode also features a conversation with Jan Hoffmann, Global Lead for Maritime Transport and Ports at the World Bank, on the latest Container Port Performance Index. Jan explains what the CPPI actually measures, why port rankings can get political, how rerouting through the Red Sea, Hormuz and beyond affects port performance, and why the global shipping map is changing in ways that are more about friend-shoring than near-shoring.

We also get into MSC vs Maersk, port ownership, shipping line-linked terminal operators, the geopolitics of port concessions, and — naturally — Jan’s ongoing haircut index and his Washington, DC kebab recommendation.

Plus: Gen Z’s anti-AI nostalgia, the World Cup heat dome, Bosnia’s unofficial theme song, Geneva’s Aperol Spritz problem, and why 320 kilos of meth is probably over the “personal use” threshold.

Listen now for a trade, shipping and geopolitics episode that connects the Strait of Hormuz, China’s energy leverage, port performance, global inflation and your next overpriced ice cream cone.

Trade has a funny way of showing up in your life. Sometimes it is tariffs, oil prices and semiconductor supply chains. Other times, it is your package sitting at the border while someone tries to decide whether “gift” and “zero value” is a legally persuasive customs strategy.

In this episode of Trade Splaining, Rob and Ardian look at why global trade is still proving surprisingly resilient - even as geopolitics, shipping disruptions and rising trade costs keep trying to ruin the party. Goods trade grew strongly in early 2026, helped in part by US demand for AI-related products like servers, semiconductors and data center equipment. But that momentum is running straight into familiar risks: the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices, shipping uncertainty and the growing reality that trade may still find a way, but it might cost more and arrive later.

The episode also looks at Europe’s attempt to become a more serious geopolitical actor in supply chains, with the EU preparing stronger emergency powers over semiconductor production and critical chip orders. Rob and Ardian also revisit the eternal zombie file of Brexit, asking whether “Bre-entry” - Britain eventually rejoining or moving closer to the EU - is still political fantasy, strategic inevitability, or simply the trade policy sequel nobody asked for but everyone keeps watching.

The main interview features Carlos Grau Tanner, Director General of the Global Express Association, the Geneva-based association representing DHL, FedEx and UPS on global policy issues including trade, customs, aviation, air transport, security and postal regulation.

Carlos explains how express delivery works behind the scenes, why customs rules matter more than most people realize, and how the explosion in low-value e-commerce parcels is putting real pressure on border agencies. As more countries move away from de minimis thresholds, governments may collect more duties and taxes - but they also risk making customs procedures far more complex than they need to be.

The conversation gets into why a $20 parcel should not necessarily be treated like a container full of high-value goods, how simplified customs regimes could reduce friction, and why better data from platforms, payment systems and logistics operators could help customs authorities target risk without slowing everything down.

Carlos also explains why trade fragmentation is changing the global logistics map. As companies rethink where they produce, sell and distribute, express carriers need flexible air traffic rights and modern cargo rules that allow them to adapt to shifting trade lanes. In other words: if trade patterns are changing, the rules governing cargo aircraft need to change with them.

Plus: customs suspicion around gifts, why your grandmother’s sweater might need a declared value, whether kebab can be shipped internationally, Geneva’s kebab data set, Swiss cows facing cross-border restrictions, and the sad passing of Lazare, the local dog who almost made it to the world record books.

Listen now for a conversation on global trade, customs, e-commerce, logistics, supply chains and why the boring stuff at the border is becoming some of the most important stuff in the world economy.

Oil shocks used to feel like something that happened in markets, headlines and awkward economist panels. Not anymore.

In this episode of Trade Splaining, we look at how the latest energy shock is moving from oil markets into the parts of the economy people actually feel - airfares, airline schedules, fuel tanks, EV demand, government energy policy and, potentially, your next holiday. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is no longer just a geopolitics story. It is becoming a consumer story, a transport story and a very expensive reminder that energy security still runs through some very narrow places.

This week, Marie Owens Thomsen, Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), joins the show to explain why aviation is facing what she calls a double energy crisis: an oil crisis and a refining crisis. Airlines do not fly on crude oil - they fly on jet fuel. And when jet fuel prices rise sharply, airlines face immediate pressure on costs, routes, pricing and survival.

Marie breaks down why sustainable aviation fuel is not as simple as “just make greener jet fuel,” why refineries are far more interconnected than most people realise, and why the future of flying depends on much bigger questions around energy systems, investment, infrastructure and political timelines. In other words: aviation may be only a small slice of refined fuel output, but when the system starts creaking, everyone notices.

Also in this episode: Trump and Xi apparently make trade nice again - details pending, napkins possibly missing - Europe’s airlines brace for higher costs, EVs get a crisis-driven boost, Swatch and Audemars Piguet release expensive pendant-shaped plastic, Switzerland accidentally gets a king, and Italy battles the real menace of our time: marauding peacocks.

• How the Hormuz crisis is feeding into fuel prices, airline costs and travel disruption
• Why jet fuel is not the same thing as crude oil - and why that matters
• How higher fuel prices could affect airfares, routes and airline profitability
• Why Europe may be especially exposed to aviation fuel shocks
• Marie Owens Thomsen on IATA, sustainability and the future of air transport
• Why sustainable aviation fuel requires a whole energy-system rethink
• How refinery economics shape the future of aviation
• Whether this crisis could accelerate renewable energy and alternative fuels
• The strange incentives now facing governments, airlines and consumers
• Switzerland’s self-declared king and Italy’s peacock problem

Marie Owens Thomsen is Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), where she is also responsible for environmental and sustainability activities and serves on IATA’s Management Committee. She previously worked at Lombard Odier as Head of Global Trends and Sustainability and has held senior roles across investment banking, private banking and international economics.

Trade Splaining, IATA, Marie Owens Thomsen, aviation, airfares, jet fuel, oil shock, Strait of Hormuz, energy crisis, sustainable aviation fuel, SAF, airline industry, global trade, energy security, transport, geopolitics, supply chains, renewable energy, refining crisis, airlines, EV demand, global economy.