Episode 87 - USMCA Uncertainty, Trade Fragmentation & the Future of Supply Chains

Global trade is shifting - and not everyone agrees on where it’s heading.

In this episode, we break down the growing uncertainty around USMCA, the rise of trade fragmentation, and what it means when the system moves away from efficiency toward resilience.

We also sit down with Will Petty, Global Head of Product Development at A.P. Moller - Maersk Trade & Customs Consulting, to understand how companies are actually responding on the ground - from navigating tariffs to rethinking supply chains and compliance.

Key topics include:

• Is USMCA at risk - and what happens if it unravels
• Why the US is pushing bilateral over regional trade deals
• The shift from “just in time” to “just in case” supply chains
• Commodity fragmentation - from copper pricing gaps to stockpiling
• Why resilience comes with real economic costs (inflation, inefficiency, volatility)
• How companies are adapting to tariff complexity and geopolitical disruption
• The growing importance of supply chain data, traceability, and compliance
• Will supply chains get shorter - or just more complicated?

With Will Petty (Maersk), we discuss:

• How businesses are reacting to constant disruption
• The real-world impact of tariffs and shifting trade flows
• Why understanding your supply chain is now a competitive advantage
• The risk - and opportunity - of shrinking supply chains

Plus:

• Expat insights
• Geneva kebab rankings
• And the unexpected return of… mall culture

Episode 86 – Is the WTO Still Relevant? MC14, Trade Chaos & a Surprisingly Resilient System | Peter Foster (FT)

🎧 Listen: t.ly/K4Jnc

Has the global trading system fundamentally broken — or is it proving more resilient than expected?

In Episode 86 of Trade Splaining, we sit down with Peter Foster, World Trade Editor at the Financial Times, to unpack the real outcomes of WTO Ministerial Conference 14 (MC14) and what they reveal about the future of global trade.

MC14: What actually happened The conference ended with limited concrete outcomes, highlighting deep divisions — particularly around the e-commerce moratorium and broader reform efforts.

Is the WTO still relevant? We explore whether the WTO is adapting to a new global reality or slowly drifting toward irrelevance in a world dominated by great power politics.

Rise of regional and plurilateral deals As consensus becomes harder, countries are increasingly turning to smaller coalitions and regional agreements to move forward.

Trade policy chaos From “napkin deals” to unpredictable negotiations, the current trade environment is becoming harder for governments and businesses to navigate.

The big paradox: trade resilience Despite rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions, global trade flows have remained surprisingly stable — raising questions about how much has really changed.

Even in a more fragmented and politically charged world, global trade continues to function — not because the system is strong, but because the incentives to keep it going are still stronger.

00:00 – Intro & episode 86 (Radon edition) 03:20 – Interview with Peter Foster 05:00 – MC14 recap 10:00 – WTO relevance debate 16:00 – Trade resilience vs tariffs 20:00 – Future of global trade 24:00 – Local news (Swiss cheese diplomacy 🧀)

Twitter/X: @TradeSplaining Instagram: @TradeSplaining Email: tradesplaining@gmail.com

Have tariffs really been rolled back — or just repackaged under a different legal label?

In Episode 85 of Trade Splaining, we unpack the fallout from the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs — and why, despite the headlines, not much may have actually changed.

We then turn to a fast-moving and underreported risk: how the Middle East conflict is disrupting global fertilizer supply chains — and what that could mean for food prices worldwide.

We’re joined by Peter S. Goodman (New York Times) to break down why this matters more than most people think.

• Why US tariffs were struck down — and how they came back almost immediately

• What happens to the $133 billion in tariff revenues now in legal limbo

• Whether trade policy has actually shifted — or just changed legal justification

• Why supply chains continue to reconfigure rather than truly de-risk

• How a third of global fertilizer supply depends on the Persian Gulf

• Why urea prices spiked ~45% in a week — and what that signals

• How fertilizer shortages translate into lower yields and higher food prices

• Why globalization isn’t going away — despite rising geopolitical tensions

• The economic incentives preventing a real shift toward resilience

• The legal basis for tariffs may have changed — but the policy hasn’t

• Tariffs remain a central tool of economic and geopolitical leverage

• Supply chains are adapting, but not necessarily becoming more resilient

• Global food systems remain highly exposed to geopolitical shocks

• Efficiency continues to win over resilience — until crisis hits

From tariffs to fertilizers, this episode highlights just how interconnected today’s global economy really is.

Disruptions in one region — whether legal, political, or military — can quickly ripple across supply chains, prices, and everyday life.

And despite all the talk of “deglobalization,” the system remains deeply interdependent — and fragile.

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tariffs, US trade policy, Supreme Court tariffs ruling, Middle East conflict, Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer supply, urea prices, global food prices, supply chains, globalization, trade policy podcast