The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through a real estate lens.

De: Dr. Adam Gower
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  • A shifting economic order. Rising geopolitical risk. Capital on edge. In The Real Estate Market Watch, Dr. Adam Gower, author, academic, and commercial real estate veteran with over 40 years of experience, examines the macroeconomic signals reshaping the real estate investment landscape. This isn’t a show about deal hype or trend-chasing. It’s about what happens when confidence meets correction - and how investors and sponsors can respond with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Each episode features candid conversations with economists, multi-cycle real estate professionals, and respected market thinkers. The aim: to make sense of fast-moving events without partisan noise or clickbait headlines - only the real implications for real estate. There’s no fixed release schedule. Episodes are published in response to market conditions, not calendars. If you're trying to navigate uncertainty with a clear-eyed, capital-first approach, this podcast is for you. Newsletter: GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000
    Unless otherwise indicated, all images, content, designs, and recordings © 2025 GowerCrowd. All rights reserved.
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Episodios
  • The Fed, the Fallout, and CRE

    The Fed, the Fallout, and CRE
    Apr 23 2025
    Debt-Driven Reality: Understanding CRE’s Structural Fragility Cracks Beneath the Surface In this episode of The Real Estate Market Watch, I sit down with Jon Winick, CEO of Clark Street Capital, to explore the increasingly fragile foundation of the commercial real estate (CRE) market. Winick draws on decades of experience in loan portfolio sales, banking, CMBS investing, and student housing to deliver a sobering, detail-rich assessment of what’s coming next — and what’s already hiding in plain sight. The Fed, Interest Rates, and the “Nuclear Option” Trump vs. Powell: Market Implications Winick opens with a sharp critique of political interference in Federal Reserve policy. While the idea of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell may feel remote, he warns that even sustained political pressure has consequences. Removing Powell — the so-called "nuclear option" — would spark chaos in capital markets, undermining global confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets. “You cannot find an industry in which debt matters more than commercial real estate,” Winick says. A destabilized bond market affects CRE indirectly but profoundly by tightening liquidity and depressing investor confidence. CRE’s Dependency on Debt: Liquidity as Lifeblood Why CRE Suffers When Capital Tightens With rates elevated and uncertainty rising, Winick highlights the outsized role debt plays in CRE. Unlike most industries, capital structure is everything in real estate. Higher interest rates are more than a cost issue—they erode the viability of deals outright. His analogy lands hard: “Low rates are like tequila on a first date. High rates are like a glass of warm milk.” Banking Behavior: The Art of Delay Defaults, Loan Maturities, and Creative Accounting Despite rising delinquencies in CMBS, bank-reported CRE loan delinquencies remain surprisingly low. Why? Banks, Winick argues, are benefiting from regulatory changes that let them defer the recognition of problem loans. “The delinquencies that you're seeing in CMBS and bank loans will inevitably converge. Banks have been able to use some new rules to hide problem loans. And eventually that [runway] runs out.” he says. Bank defaults may not be catastrophic, but their opacity clouds the picture for investors trying to assess real risk. Creative Destruction Denied Why Bailouts Delay the Inevitable Winick argues the post-COVID economy is still “wrapped up by actual or indirect fraud.” From subsidized mortgages to suspended student loan collections, unsustainable federal programs have kept weak assets and businesses afloat. He makes a provocative case for embracing creative destruction. “We’ve basically decided as a society that we won’t let businesses fail… but that’s ultimately bad economics.” Policy, Regulation, and the Supply-Demand Trap Deregulation and its Unintended Consequences Dodd-Frank’s unintended effect was to choke off consumer credit, particularly in regions with few lenders. Winick compares Puerto Rico, with just three banks, to Iowa, with the same size population as Puerto Rico, with 246. The result? Higher interest rates, limited options, and an underfinanced economy. He calls for “smart, effective regulation,” warning that over-regulation concentrates power while under-regulation invites asset bubbles. The Signals to Watch Now What CRE Investors Should Be Monitoring Winick identifies several canaries in the coal mine for CRE investors: Widening CMBS credit spreads: These are leading indicators of borrowing cost pressures. Corporate bankruptcies and retail closures: Especially among large tenants like Walgreens or government departments exiting leases. Shifts in political winds: Regulatory reversals could radically alter CRE's operating environment. Strategy: What Should CRE Investors Be Doing? Be Patient, but Be Realistic For investors sitting on cash, Winick’s advice is pragmatic: “Be patient… [but] waiting for a home run often means you miss out on a lot of great opportunities.” He urges caution and downside awareness in every negotiation, pointing out that real movement in the market won’t occur until lenders are forced to act or borrowers are out of options. Final Thought: The Bond Vigilantes Will Win A System Bound by Market Forces Winick closes with a sharp reminder that the bond market, not politicians, sets the true limits: “The bond vigilantes always get their way.” In a world dependent on debt, real estate investors should watch not just interest rates — but who controls the levers behind them. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside ...
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    44 m
  • The Truth About Capital Raising

    The Truth About Capital Raising
    Apr 22 2025
    When you listen in to this week's podcast/YouTube show guest, Elijah Iung, you’ll love hearing about his journey from farmhand to capital raiser. Before he was investing in multifamily deals, he was knee-deep in… well, let’s just say a much messier kind of asset management. But that dirty work paid off. Elijah built a multi-seven-figure business in cattle waste management, which set the stage for his transition into farmland investing and, eventually, multifamily syndication. His journey from tractor-driving farmhand to capital allocator is as unconventional as it is insightful. Betting Big on Multifamily After selling his waste management business, Elijah discovered that much of his wealth was actually growing through his farmland investments, not from his business itself. That realization led him to multifamily real estate, where he quickly learned the ropes by investing as an LP, joining masterminds, and building key sponsor relationships. Raising His First Million Elijah’s first capital raise wasn’t a walk in the park. Tasked with raising $1M for a $39M multifamily deal in Savannah, GA, he hustled hard, digging through his contacts, cold calling, and leveraging LinkedIn to bring investors into the fold. As a co-GP with Lake City Equity, he put up his own capital, structured investor incentives, and navigated the complexities of syndication. Lessons from the Frontlines Raising capital might sound like a simple process; build an email list, send a few messages, and watch the money roll in. The reality? It’s anything but that and Elijah quickly learned that trust is everything – and that trust isn’t built overnight. It takes time, persistence, and a thick skin to handle the inevitable rejections. His first raise was a grind. Cold calls were brutal, follow-ups felt endless, and convincing investors to part with six figures took more than just a good pitch; it required credibility and relationships. Then came the complexities of syndication: structuring equity splits, managing fees, and balancing the interests of both sponsors and investors. Despite the hurdles, Elijah delivered. He raised the full $1M, became the largest LP in his own deal, and walked away with something even more valuable – experience. Now, he’s doubling down on building his investor network through LinkedIn, masterminds, and in-person connections, ensuring that his next raise won’t be nearly as uphill. *** This episode is a real, unfiltered look at what it takes to break into capital raising, the myths that get shattered along the way, and the strategies that actually work. If you’ve ever thought about raising money for real estate deals or just want to hear how a former farmhand turned syndicator made his first million-dollar raise, you’ll want to hit play on this one. *** Explore the world of real estate capital allocators—a fresh approach to financing that’s reshaping the industry. In this series, I talk with allocators, investors, sponsors, and service providers to give you an inside look at this fast-growing space. PLUS, subscribe to my free newsletter for real estate investors and gain access to: * Introductions to sponsors, allocators, and investment opportunities. * Insights drawn from my 30+ years of experience in real estate investing. * Hacks and tactics for raising capital to help you scale your real estate portfolio. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe
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    30 m
  • Think You’re Diversified? Think Again!

    Think You’re Diversified? Think Again!
    Apr 21 2025
    Please welcome my guest today, dentist Josh Cochran, who didn’t just build the largest general dental group in the Inland Northwest, he built a real estate empire while he was at it. After selling a stake in his thriving dental practice, he set his sights on commercial real estate, starting with medical retail development before getting involved in ground-up multifamily projects worth over $125 million. The Accidental Developer Josh has an interesting background in that he didn’t just lease space for his dental offices, he built them and, in the process, he discovered he had a knack for development. What started as a necessity quickly became a passion, leading him to acquire land, structure deals, and transform raw dirt into ground up developments. Scaling Up to Multifamily Retail development had its challenges, but Josh knew where the market was heading. He pivoted to multifamily, securing land, entitling projects, and working with institutional capital partners to develop over 450 units across five projects. Along the way, he raised millions from investors, balancing capital allocation with active development. Raising Millions While Protecting Investors With a network of high-net-worth investors, many from his dental background, Josh built a capital-raising system. He is hyper-focused on due diligence, personally vetting deals, sponsors, and market fundamentals before committing capital. His slow and steady approach has helped him safeguard investors from the risky, overleveraged deals that have sunk others. Lessons from the Trenches Josh shares the hard-earned lessons from his transition, including: Why development takes longer than you think—but is worth the wait The biggest fundraising mistakes investors make (and how to avoid them) How he structures deals to align incentives and mitigate risk The power of relationships in CRE and why “going deep” is better than broad diversification. *** From running a successful dental practice to structuring nine-figure real estate deals, Josh’s journey proves that the right mindset and strategic partnerships can open the door to CRE success. If you’re looking to break into development, master capital raising, or scale a real estate business, this episode is full of real-world lessons and advice. *** Explore the world of real estate capital allocators—a fresh approach to financing that’s reshaping the industry. In this series, I talk with allocators, investors, sponsors, and service providers to give you an inside look at this fast-growing space. PLUS, subscribe to my free newsletter for real estate investors and gain access to: * Introductions to sponsors, allocators, and investment opportunities. * Insights drawn from my 30+ years of experience in real estate investing. * Hacks and tactics for raising capital to help you scale your real estate portfolio. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe
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    50 m
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Comprehensive

Good insights to terms for investors. Found out about south and tax free states. I’ll listen again!
Cheers

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