Criminal profiling promises certainty in the face of horror: this is what a killer looks like, this is how they think, this is how we stop them. But what if that promise is mostly an illusion?

In this episode, Michael Shermer is joined by journalist and author Rachel Corbett to dismantle the myths behind criminal profiling, from the FBI’s Behavioral Science Unit to our obsession with serial killers, mindhunters, and “psychological fingerprints.”

Corbett explains why randomness is harder to accept than evil, and how our hunger for neat explanations can actually make us less safe.

Plus, the legacy of MKUltra and Ted Kaczynski, the seductive appeal of true crime, and the uncomfortable truth behind the “Jekyll and Hyde” problem: monsters rarely look like monsters.

Rachel Corbett is a features writer at New York magazine, and her writing has also appeared in The New Yorker, The New York Times, and The Atlantic. She is the author of You Must Change Your Life, which won the Marfield Prize, the National Award for Arts Writing. Her new book is The Monsters We Make: Murder, Obsession, and the Rise of Criminal Profiling.

For nearly two centuries, international relations have been premised on the idea of the “Great Powers.” As the thinking went, these mighty states—the European empires of the nineteenth century, the United States and the USSR during the Cold War—were uniquely able to exert their influence on the world stage because of their overwhelming military capabilities. But this conception of power fails to capture the more complicated truth about how wars are fought and won.

Our focus on the importance of large, well-equipped armies and conclusive battles has obscured the foundational forces that underlie military victories and the actual mechanics of successful warfare.

Phillips O’Brien suggests a new framework of “full-spectrum powers,” taking into account all of the diverse factors that make a state strong—from economic and technological might, to political stability, to the complex logistics needed to maintain forces in the field.

Drawing on examples ranging from Napoleon’s France to today’s ascendant China, he offers a critical new understanding of what makes a power truly great.

Phillips Payson O’Brien is a professor of strategic studies and head of the School of International Relations at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. He is the author of six books, including his latest War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why.

In this episode of The Michael Shermer Show, Michael sits down with two giants of mind and machine science: Jay McClelland, one of the founders of modern neural networks, and Gaurav Suri, computational neuroscientist and director of the RAD Lab.

Drawing from decades of research, they walk us through the revolution from behaviorism to cognitive psychology to modern neuroscience, and why simple interacting units can give rise to astonishingly complex behaviors.

From why we perceive letters differently in context to how memory works, why consciousness remains baffling, and what AI is (and isn’t) actually doing, this episode dives deep into the mechanics of all levels of thought, mind, and even consciousness.

Jay McClelland is a professor of psychology and of computer science and linguistics at Stanford University. He is one of the most influential and well-known cognitive scientists of the past century. He is the founder of the study of artificial neural networks, and his publications have been cited more than 100,000 times. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and a Corresponding Fellow of the British Academy.

Gaurav Suri is an associate professor of psychology at San Francisco State University. He is a computational neuroscientist and an experimental psychologist. He is the director of RADLab, where he studies the mechanisms that shape motivated action and decision making. He is the co-author of the prize-winning novel A Certain Ambiguity and several dozen influential research papers.

Their new book is The Emergent Mind: How Intelligence Arises in People and Machines.