The Avoidable War

The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China

De: Kevin Rudd

Narrado por: Kevin Rudd, Rafe Beckley

A war between China and the US would be catastrophic, deadly, and destructive. Unfortunately, it is no longer unthinkable.

The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault - of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer, and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily.

Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister who has studied, lived in, and worked with China for more than forty years, is one of the very few people who can offer real insight into the mindsets of the leadership whose judgment will determine if a war will be fought. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls “managed strategic competition.” Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world.

©2022 Kevin Rudd (P)2022 PublicAffairs

Reseñas de la Crítica

“A lifelong student of China, Kevin Rudd has become one of today’s most thoughtful analysts of China’s development. The Avoidable War focuses on the signal challenge posed by China’s evolution to America and to world order. Can the US and China avoid sleepwalking into a conflict? Rudd offers constructive steps for the two powers to stabilize their relations.” (Henry A. Kissinger)

“Wise counsel from a seasoned statesman who recognizes the real risk of catastrophic war and illuminates a promising path the US and China could take to avoid it.” (Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, and author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?)

“An extraordinary tour de force that analyzes the most important geopolitical relationship of the 21st-century. Organized, like Dante’s Inferno, into concentric circles that describe in brilliant detail the challenges ahead and a timely prescription to avoid a catastrophe. Let us truly hope that we can indeed avoid a war that looms upon us like a dark tower, threatening all the progress we have made.” (Admiral James Stavridis, 16th supreme Allied commander of NATO, former dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University)

Well written and well researched, but naive in its conclusions

The author presents a well researched and fairly unbiased overview of the current situation vis a vis the U.S. and China. The situation is truly frightening, to say the least.

The author exchanged his thoughtful and well researched tone for wishful thinking in the final chapters where he lays out what the US and China can do to prevent war. Indeed, some of the authors conclusions are naive in the extreme (which he himself admits). His suggestion major domestic structural reforms in the US and China that would counter major long term political trends in each country.

The author makes clear that war between China and the west should be avoided. One avenue that the author points out, but doesn’t explore is that the US still has a quickly closing window to economically ruin the CCP while it’s vulnerable. Contrary to the authors obvious personal bias, it appears that in 2018 Trump might have stumbled onto the right way to deal with China after all; albeit for different reasons.

A less naive assessment of the facts presented in this book would lead a non-Chinese national reader to conclude that China has the same ideological, national, territorial and geo-political goals as the USSR. Therefore the US and the free world is left with two choices:
1. Immediately economically strangle the evil empire like Reagan did to the USSR or
2. Prepare to bend the knee with the rest of the world to our new glorious overlords

very good outlook and very updated

it's very dense but very helpful to get a good idea of the curse of the world for the next 10-20 years and more

Insightful and important

Kevin Rudd’s book, is a brilliant explanation of the world’s current situation about the tensions between China and the West. Kevin begins with a deep historical explanation about how we reached the edge of our diplomatic bubbles (from both sides). He then delves into the actors, their personalities, motives and incentives from a senior diplomatic POV (Xi, Trump etc...). Finally, Kevin leaves us with diplomatic solutions for avoiding a possible disaster we have grown to believe to be inevitable. One of the best books on the subject and the more people read it the better.

Authoritative and Prescient

Kevin Rudd pulls on decades of experience to provide a detailed overview of what leads us to this point with China and where he sees the world going as a result. Mandatory reading!

By far the best book on China

You may not agree with the 10 concentric circle framework, personally I think it helps the structure of the book more than the analysis itself, but the content is first rate. As a Chinese reasonably literate in domestic politics, I am impressed by Mr. Rudd’s insights. Highly recommended if you want to improve your odds in getting the next decade right.

Strongly recommend

This was an excellent explanation of the struggle between China and US. Kevin Rudd has written a book both informative and insightful.

A Subtle, Focused Book

Not everyone will want to read a book like this; it’s not classic beach read material. But if you were in any way considering reading this book, you should read it.

It was published before the war in Ukraine and the most recent cracks in China’s zero COVID policy. To that extent, it may be a half beat behind recent trends in US-Taiwan rhetoric/policy, the weakening of Russian international posture, and shifts in both the unity and posture of the European Union and NATO. Still, this sober, scary, nuanced, and hopeful book is about as comprehensive and up to date as one could ask for.

Comprehensive strategic analysis

In contrast to most books that address the US China competition, Rudds analysis is comprehensive, including economic competition.

The best and most sensible book on CHINA and the US in a while

Former Prime Ministers Rudd’s excellent book should form a blueprint to de escalate tensions between Washington and Beijing- my fear is in the current environment it will fall on deaf ears.

The best book on the current China -U.S. relations

The Author is well versed in both the Chinese culture and history as well as the American. He is well connected to policy makes in both countries. The book is easy to read and well constructed, it describes the real risk of the current trajectory of the relationship between China and the U.S. and offers a path FWD for managed strategic competition that can avoid a potentially catastrophic war.