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The market continues to hang on to its view that the peak in Fed rates is imminent and that it will cut from around mid-next year despite strong US data and Fed members making clear that another big hike is coming in September. Can this week's CPI data change that? We also discuss commodities, with oil prices possibly a bit complacent given tight supply, while metals are showing signs of turning and gold is "walking a tightrope" on the macro outlook. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3QoPX5l   -

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Today we look at market complacency continuing as the market seems to be pricing in a soft landing for the economy and eventual disinflation. We compare the course of the current US equity market drawdown from the top with the bear market of 2007-09, take a look at the market's reaction to the Bank of England's dire outlook for the economy in its meeting yesterday, discuss the impact of buybacks on the US equity market, preview today's US jobs report and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zW1dk7   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  -

Today we look at the market reaction to surprisingly strong ISM Services survey for July, which was completely at odds with the very weak July S&P Global Services PMI. We also discuss the implications and lack of confidence in the meaning of a new record inversion of the yield curve yesterday, especially vis-a-vis the risk of complacent forward assumptions on inflation normalizing. In particular, the market appears totally unprepared for stagflationary outcomes. We also discuss Europe's rumbling energy crisis, key equity stories and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic