Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead after a volatile week for central banks and markets amid uncertainty around the Iran situation. In the UK, the Bank of England held rates, struck a more hawkish tone with a 9–0 vote, and stressed inflation risks from elevated energy prices, though growth vulnerability and rising unemployment risks keep a high bar for hikes and support an ultimately needed, delayed rate-cut path; upcoming UK CPI and retail sales are key. Globally, the ECB, SNB, Riksbank, and Bank of Canada also held rates while balancing upside inflation and downside growth risks; the Bank of Japan stayed on a hawkish path; and the RBA hiked to 4.1%. Next week features global flash PMIs, Aussie CPI, German IFO, and ECB commentary. In the US, the Fed held rates with mildly dovish projections but a hawkish press conference; attention turns to Trump, risk assets, oil, Treasuries, and eased big-bank capital requirements.

00:00 Show Intro
00:27 UK Outlook BoE
02:36 Global Central Banks
04:32 Week Ahead Data
05:23 US After FOMC
07:28 Weekend Sports Talk
08:15 Long And Short Picks
08:30 Wrap Up And Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a complex global macro backdrop dominated by the Iran conflict’s impact on oil, inflation expectations, yields, equities, and growth, with market focus shifting to a heavy week of central bank meetings. In the UK, weak sales, house prices, and a softer January GDP print reinforce growth concerns; despite markets repricing toward possible Bank of England hikes, Staines sees a high bar given weakening growth and reduced fiscal space, though statement language will be closely parsed. Elsewhere, the RBA is expected to bring forward a 25bp hike, while the Bank of Canada, SNB, Riksbank, and ECB are broadly expected to hold rates amid differing inflation and growth dynamics. The Fed is seen as most consequential, with unchanged rates expected but close attention on updated projections and dots amid a weaker revised Q4 GDP and ongoing geopolitical risks.

00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:27 UK Outlook and BoE Watch
02:24 Global Central Bank Roundup
05:19 Fed Focus and US Data
07:19 Weekend Watchlist Sports
08:32 Long and Short Picks
08:52 Wrap Up and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead against major uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, noting it is likely to dominate sentiment and positioning while they limit forecasts to the macroeconomy. In the UK, the Spring Statement brought no policy change but updated OBR projections: 2026 growth cut to 1.1% (from 1.4%), peak unemployment lifted to 5.3% (from 4.9%), and inflation lowered to 2.3%. The fiscal outlook also improved via higher projected revenues and lower debt funding costs due to a lower yield curve, though they remain skeptical given January tax effects and the sensitivity of public finances to moves in rates following developments around Iran. January UK GDP is the key domestic release. Globally, with the BoE and ECB entering blackout periods ahead of meetings on the 19th (and the FOMC ahead of the 18th), focus includes Eurozone investor confidence and industrial production, Isabel Schnabel’s remarks, China’s CPI/PPI amid limited domestic-demand messaging from Two Sessions, and inflation releases across several EMs alongside Hungary minutes and a Turkey rate decision. In the US, February CPI, the trade balance, PCE, and JOLTS are key, with oil’s impact on inflation and expectations central.

00:00 Show Intro
00:27 Middle East Backdrop
01:12 UK Spring Statement
02:27 UK GDP Watch
02:50 Global Data Radar
03:14 Europe And Energy
03:41 China Inflation Focus
04:48 US CPI And Oil
06:41 Weekend Sports Picks
07:29 Long And Short Signoff
07:57 Closing Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.