We unpack the latest cross asset price action in response to surging oil prices and what elevated energy prices could mean for inflation, the Fed, and broader risk sentiment. We then explore why AI agents may become one of the most important structural themes in crypto, as autonomous software increasingly needs wallets, payments, settlement, and coordination rails to transact at scale. We also discuss Ethereum’s evolving institutional story, including why activity and liquidity may be re-centering around Ethereum L1 as the fee gap versus L2s narrows and upcoming upgrades improve the base layer’s execution capacity. Finally, we look at crypto’s deeper move into household finance through products like crypto-backed mortgages and 401(k) access, and why that could mark an important next phase in the asset class’s institutionalization.

Key sections:

• (00:00 - 14:07) Iran, oil, and the macro backdrop: why the breakout above $100 in crude oil futures matters, how elevated energy prices are tightening financial conditions, and implications for risk assets.
• (14:07 - 20:08) Why AI agents matter for crypto: how the narrative has shifted from model training to inference, reasoning, and persistent agents, and why autonomous software may need crypto-native payments, wallets, and settlement rails to function as real economic actors.
• (20:08 - 27:48) Where value may accrue in the AI-agent stack: foundational rails, coordination layers, and integrity layers, plus how x402, Base, and tokens tied to agent coordination or decentralized intelligence fit into that framework.
• (27:48 - 37:43) Ethereum’s institutional moment and the L1/L2 narrative shift: why lower mainnet fees and upcoming upgrades may be helping activity, liquidity, stablecoins, and tokenized assets re-center around Ethereum L1.
• (37:43 - 42:17) Crypto-backed mortgages and 401(k)s: why crypto’s integration into core household financial products could be a meaningful next step for institutional adoption, even if the long-term structure still depends on greater regulatory clarity.
  
  Speakers:
  David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)
  Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)

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In this episode, we step back from the macro noise and focus on the biggest crypto stories of the week:

• (03:11 - 05:18) Why tokenization, stablecoins, AI agents, and onchain commerce are emerging as core crypto infrastructure themes. Plus, Coinbase Asset Management’s tokenized bitcoin yield fund on Base and what it says about institutional demand for compliant onchain products.
• (05:18 - 08:51) Why Hyperliquid’s launch of an S&P 500 perpetual matters beyond a single product: the significance of securing an official S&P license, why this helps validate Hyperliquid as more than a crypto-only venue, and how it could set a precedent for more licensed benchmark exposure to move onchain.
• (08:51 - 18:58) Breaking down the new SEC-CFTC digital commodity taxonomy: how it reduces legal ambiguity, why that matters for institutional allocation, and why it may benefit altcoins
• (18:58 - 26:21) Ethereum’s emerging supply sink: why BlackRock’s staked ETH ETF changes the demand story, how staking and treasury holdings are reducing ETH’s tradable float, and why that could become increasingly important for Ethereum’s long-run supply-demand profile
  
  Speakers:
  David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)
  Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)

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This week, we unpack some major crypto market themes:

• The Iran shock has turned oil from a background variable into an active transmission channel for inflation and volatility, complicating the Fed’s path to rate cuts just as labor data quietly weakens in the background. What will the Fed do at its FOMC meeting this week?
• Bitcoin has outperformed U.S. equities and large‑cap tech on a risk‑adjusted basis since the start of March, helped by prior deleveraging and a cleaner positioning backdrop, which supports the view that we may be moving past “peak pessimism” – though the confirmation signal is still pending.
• Altcoins are showing strong relative performance, signaling a return to risk appetite, with AI-related sectors breaking out and gaining momentum following events like the Nvidia conference. That includes tokens like BItTensor’s TAO as well as Venice’s VVV. Meanwhile, Meta’s acquisition of Moltbook (a social network for AI agents) highlights the growth of agentic commerce.
  
  Speakers:
  David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)
  Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)

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In this episode, we unpack the latest escalation in the Iran conflict and why the move in oil matters for markets, inflation expectations, and the Fed. We discuss how a headline-sensitive geopolitical risk premium has made oil the key macro transmission channel again, why the duration of any supply disruption matters, and what that could mean for bitcoin if this evolves from a short-lived shock into a longer war of attrition. We also explore why crypto-native venues like Hyperliquid have benefited from weekend price discovery in oil and other macro assets, and why we think open interest matters more than raw volume when judging the durability of Hyperliquid’s moat. Finally, we lay out the key BTC levels and trading scenarios for the week ahead: why $73K remains the pivotal breakout zone, how negative gamma around $75K could accelerate a move toward $80K if reclaimed, and why we continue to favor trading the reaction at key levels rather than blindly front-running moves.

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In this episode, we unpack the latest escalation in the Iran conflict and why the Strait of Hormuz standoff may be affecting market volatility and inflation-risk. We discuss the initial stability in markets before sentiment sobered on Tuesday as spillover fears grew, with oil rallying as gold fell. We then pivot to Block’s 40% workforce cut, explicitly framed as an AI-driven operating model shift, and argue it’s less a one-off layoff story and more a signal of what markets may increasingly reward: credible “AI-to-margins” narratives that reshape competitive incentives. From there, we connect AI-driven restructuring to bitcoin through two macro paths: 1) a productivity-led disinflation tailwind that loosens financial conditions versus 2) a near-term demand shock that triggers risk-off first. Finally, we highlight bitcoin’s key levels and map out the trading scenarios to watch this week.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)
Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)

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In this episode, we explore AI’s role in the recent cross-asset sell off and talk about what levels to watch on bitcoin in this mostly technically driven market. Negative gamma near the $60-70k zone may exacerbate downside moves, while positive gamma closer to $85-90k levels may pin price action to the upside. Indeed, despite Strategy (MSTR) buying BTC and Bitmine buying ETH over the last week, the price action largely continues to look lackluster. We talk about why this and other factors have contributed to our decision to change our market outlook from cautiously optimistic to neutral in 1Q26. We also discuss Vitalik Buterin’s recent write up on the future of Ethereum Layer-2 networks.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)
Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)

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On this episode, we sit down with Project 11 CEO Alex Pruden to unpack what quantum computing really means for bitcoin’s long‑term security — without the hype or doom scenarios. We break down realistic timelines for “cryptographically relevant” quantum computers, which parts of bitcoin are actually at risk, and why open blockchains may be better positioned to upgrade than legacy finance. The conversation also highlights Coinbase’s Independent Advisory Board on Quantum Computing and Blockchain and how the council is helping the industry plan calmly for a post‑quantum future.

Guest: Alex Prudent, CEO of Project 11

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)
Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)

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This week we discuss the sharp decline in crypto prices, which fell alongside gold after the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, seemingly disproving the gold-to-bitcoin rotation narrative. We explore the lack of a clear marginal buyer for BTC, the increasing bearish positioning in the derivatives market, and the challenge for long-term holders. We also analyze the potential of digital asset treasuries as buyers, concluding their impact lessens as prices drop, and discuss recent positive regulatory developments regarding the crypto market structure bill, with prediction market odds for passage before May now at 74%. Finally, it seems systematic trading strategies are looking for a strong reclaim of the $81K-82K range as the key technical level for a shift in BTC regime - we breakdown what this means for market players.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)
Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)

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