The United States and China reached a 90-day truce in the trade war when their representatives met in Geneva in early May. Both sides agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. President Trump announced that a “total reset” in US-China relations had been achieved. Beyond the hyperbole, the two sides agreed to establish a mechanism on economics and trade and launch negotiations to address trade imbalances and other problems. Whether a deal is reached, what it might look like, and what it might include, remains to be seen. The future trajectory of US-China relations, overall, is still unclear.

This episode highlights a Chinese perspective on the US-China bilateral relationship, including on the recent trade talks and the factors that will influence US-China relations going forward. Sun Chenghao, a fellow and head of the U.S.-Europe program at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS), and council member of the Chinese Association of American Studies joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:39] What does Trump want from China?

[04:29] What view does Dr. Sun hold?

[05:00] Assessing the US-China Geneva Talks

[09:21] Feasibility of a Broad US-China Trade Deal

[13:23] Implications of Trump’s “Unification” Comment

[16:46] Importance of the Strategic Channel

[20:47] Declining America, Rising China

[23:27] Shift in US Policy Toward Alliances

[27:49] The Future of US-China Relations

Critical minerals are required for the manufacturing of electronics, aerospace equipment, medical devices, and renewable energy technologies, making them essential for a country’s economic and national security. These materials have been at the center of China’s domestic and foreign policy for many decades, and China’s ability to integrate internal industrial policies with foreign trade and investment policies has allowed them to gain dominance in the market. Meanwhile, the US has lagged behind China in terms of both access to and processing technology of critical minerals. The country has been heavily dependent on China for its critical minerals and struggles to find an alternative supplier.

China’s announcement to impose export restrictions on seven rare earth elements on April 4th has opened many conversations surrounding critical minerals, especially regarding the US and its supply chain vulnerabilities. What has China done to achieve their global dominance in the critical minerals sector, and what can the US do to address the overdependence issue they are facing today? To answer these questions and more, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Gracelin Baskaran, the director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She is a mining economist whose area of expertise is critical minerals and trade.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[02:13] US Dependencies on Rare Earths and Critical Minerals

[03:51] Sourcing from Latin America, Africa, and Asia

[06:28] Environmental Harm from Mining and Processing

[08:11] Deliberate Suppression of the Price of Rare Earths in the Market

[11:06] Chinese Exports Restrictions on Seven Rare Earth Elements

[14:08] US Administrations’ Approaches to Critical Minerals Vulnerability

[20:02] 2010 Fishing Boat Accident and Japan’s Response

[24:00] What might China do moving forward?

[27:42] Timeframe for the US to Catch Up to China

This episode of the China Global podcast discusses evolving disputes between China and South Korea, specifically regarding their unresolved maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea. There is a long history of fishing disputes between the two countries in the Provisional Measures Zone (or PMZ) of the Yellow Sea, which is where their exclusive economic zones overlap. Although China and South Korea have engaged in negotiations over the years, they have yet to come to an agreement on their boundaries in the Yellow Sea.

Taking advantage of the persisting disagreement on delimitation of maritime borders, China has employed gray zone tactics in the Yellow Sea to expand its territorial presence in the region. In the most recent dispute, China installed a new steel structure in the PMZ, causing a maritime standoff between Chinese and Korean coast guards.

To discuss recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China’s broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ray Powell, the Director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. Ray is also the co-host of the Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific podcast, and a 35-year veteran of the US Air Force.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:43] Strategic Significance of the Yellow Sea

[03:12] Expanding Chinese Control in the Region

[04:08] Chinese Maritime Installations

[05:20] Are these installations found in other regions?

[06:00] Gray Zone Tactics in the South China Sea

[08:20] Maritime Militia Activity in the Yellow Sea

[09:02] 2001 Korea-China Fisheries Agreement

[10:34] Testing the Waters with South Korea

[12:09] Navigating South Korean Policy Dilemmas

[13:48] Rehabilitating China’s Imagine in Korea

[15:14] Environmental Issues in Disputed Waters

[17:18] Countering Chinese Activities in the Yellow Sea

[19:40] SeaLight Tracking and Deciphering Chinese Actions