Wonders never cease in the bank treasury world, what with earthquakes in the metro NYC area to eclipses of the sun, but surely the sudden flattening of the yield curve this month, which is now half as inverted as it was last month, must stir the imagination of even the most experienced bank treasurer. This month’s newsletter pulls back the curtain on key talking points in the bank treasury world, explaining why a neutral balance sheet is not risk-free, why neutral, risk-free interest rates may not exist, why bank treasurers should never count on liquidity to be there when they need it, and why regulators trying to prevent liquidity problems in the banking system with pre-positioned collateral at the discount window may make bank treasury even more complicated than it already is.

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Music by Phantom Sun.

On the first anniversary of the crisis last March, this month’s newsletter looks at the unique circumstances and mistakes that ultimately led to the failure of SVB and lessons learned. One of those lessons is to beware of lessons learned, especially when they are based on “flawed, post-mortem reviews,” as Fed Governor Bowman argued this month. Even if the Basel 3 Endgame proposal looks like it is headed for a delay, our bank treasury contacts tell the newsletter that bank supervisors are already tightening guidance. A particular NYC regional bank was likely a victim of their new hardball approach. On a positive note, banks see stabilizing trends in their deposit balances and pricing and uninsured depositors are not in crisis mode anymore. However, most also believe that unless rates go back to 0%, depositors are not going to shift back to checking levels held as recently as two years ago, when noninterest-bearing deposits in the system equaled 30% of total deposits, compared to 23% last quarter.

Subscribe to The Bank Treasury Newsletter and Podcast at thebanktreasurynewsletter.com for professional Insights and commentary on bank treasury issues, investment portfolio strategy, and more. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Amazon. Follow us on LinkedIn.

Music by Phantom Sun.

How is artificial intelligence changing the banking industry? Will bank analysts be replaced by A.I.? And is that a bad thing? A former Credit Suisse analyst and a veteran European bank expert weigh in.

Subscribe to The Bank Treasury Newsletter and Podcast at thebanktreasurynewsletter.com for professional Insights and commentary on bank treasury issues, investment portfolio strategy, and more. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Amazon. Follow us on LinkedIn.

Music by Phantom Sun.