Weekend Edition: An oil glut amidst geopolitical uncertainty

Friday 23rd January 2026

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Oil has been trending lower lately. Rory Johnston says its primarily down to an expanding oil glut, which the market expects will be ultimately corrected. In the meantime, the impact of the glut has been subsumed by a variety of other factors, such as sanctions on Russia, the attack on Venezuela, uncertainty over Iran and such like. Without these distractions and the assumption of a supply correction Rory reckons oil prices would be sub $50, if not sub $40.

Rory is an oil market researcher, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munks school of global affairs and public policy, and founder of Commodity Context, that provides deep data-driven analysis of the oil markets (commoditycontext.com). He joins Phil to talk through what is influencing oil prices and what he expects to happen this year.

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