This episode of Excess Returns features a wide ranging conversation with Grant Williams on what he calls the hundred year pivot. Grant explains why today’s environment feels fundamentally different from the last several decades, why long held investing assumptions may no longer apply, and how declining trust in institutions, money, and markets is reshaping the global financial system. Drawing on history, macroeconomics, and decades of market experience, the discussion explores what this transition means for investors trying to navigate a world defined by uncertainty, volatility, and structural change.

Main topics covered
• What the hundred year pivot means and why it represents a once in a generation shift
• The Fourth Turning framework and how it connects financial crises, politics, and social change
• Why buy the dip worked for decades and why it may fail in the years ahead
• The erosion of trust in institutions and its impact on markets and money
• The financial crisis, sanctions, and the freezing of sovereign assets as turning points
• The role of the dollar, gold, and central banks in a changing monetary system
• Lessons from history including Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis
• Why commodities and real assets matter in a world of deglobalization and reshoring
• How artificial intelligence fits into the current investment cycle and capital allocation boom
• Portfolio construction and behavioral challenges in a higher volatility environment

Timestamps
00:00 The hundred year pivot and why this cycle is different
01:30 Defining the Fourth Turning and historical cycles
07:40 The financial crisis as the start of institutional breakdown
11:00 Sanctions, sovereign assets, and the end of unquestioned trust in the dollar
18:20 Historical parallels from Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis
24:50 What could trigger a broader monetary reset
28:50 Energy, geopolitics, and shifting global alliances
35:00 Commodities, real assets, and rebuilding supply chains
42:40 Artificial intelligence, capital cycles, and uncertainty
52:30 Portfolio construction, behavior, and risk tolerance
59:50 Where to follow Grant Williams and his work

In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most pressing investing debates today: how to think about valuations, profit margins, and artificial intelligence in a market that feels both expensive and transformative. Sam Ro joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation that explores whether traditional valuation tools still matter, how AI is reshaping corporate economics, and why history suggests investors should be cautious about bubble narratives even when enthusiasm runs high. From profit margins and capital intensity to the future of the Magnificent Seven, this episode focuses on how long-term investors can frame uncertainty without relying on false precision or short-term market calls.

Timestamps
00:00 Valuations, bubbles, and why timing markets is so hard
01:41 Do valuations still matter for investors
05:58 S&P 500 valuation levels versus history
09:30 Profit margins and why mean reversion has not shown up yet
14:39 Household finances, pricing power, and consumer resilience
15:47 AI, productivity, and the limits of forecasting economic impact
19:15 Valuations adjusted for structurally higher profit margins
21:15 Tech multiples, growth expectations, and PEG ratios
24:07 Are we in an AI bubble and why that question may not help
29:14 Lessons from past bubbles and irrational exuberance
30:14 How transformative AI could be compared to past innovations
35:20 Massive AI capital spending and the risk of overbuild
39:42 Who captures value in AI: builders versus users
46:39 Revenue per worker and productivity trends
48:00 Dispersion inside the Magnificent Seven
51:34 Big tech shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy models
59:53 Turnover among top companies over time
01:01:10 Why Wall Street price targets miss the point
01:04:30 Presidential cycles and market returns
01:06:28 Fund manager surveys and why popular risks are often lagging indicators

Topics covered
How investors should think about valuations over long time horizons
Why elevated profit margins may be more structural than cyclical
The role of AI in productivity, earnings, and competitive dynamics
Bubble psychology and lessons from the dot-com era
Capital intensity, overinvestment, and the risk of write-downs
Why AI infrastructure builders may not capture most of the value
What dispersion within the Magnificent Seven signals for markets
Why broad diversification still matters in a rapidly changing market

In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to walk through her technical outlook for markets as we head into 2026. The conversation focuses on trend analysis, momentum, volatility, and risk management across U.S. equities, sectors, international markets, and alternative assets. Rather than making predictions, Katie explains how she reacts to price, confirms signals, and uses a disciplined technical process to identify opportunities and manage downside risk in changing market environments.

Main topics covered
Market trend outlook for U.S. equities heading into 2026
Why long-term trends remain constructive despite rising short-term risks
How to think about volatility, consolidation, and corrective phases
What loss of momentum in late 2025 signals for near-term positioning
How to use triangle formations, support, and resistance levels
Understanding DeMark indicators, MACD, and stochastic signals
Leadership shifts within large-cap technology and the Mag 7
Growth versus value dynamics across market caps
Small caps, market breadth, and participation signals
Sector rotation insights including technology, healthcare, financials, energy, utilities, and real estate
How sentiment indicators like fear and greed fit into a broader process
Gold, silver, and precious metals trends and volatility
Bitcoin and crypto from a technical perspective
The U.S. dollar, yields, and global market implications
International and emerging market opportunities
How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF is constructed and used in portfolios
Where a tactical, risk-managed strategy can fit within asset allocation

Timestamps
00:00 Market setup and trend perspective for 2026
01:25 Long-term uptrend versus short-term risk
04:16 Momentum loss and near-term caution
06:00 Nasdaq 100 triangle and volatility setup
07:45 Ichimoku clouds and trend confirmation
11:01 Using consolidation and support levels
13:05 Tech leadership and relative strength shifts
18:30 Small caps, breadth, and market participation
21:01 Growth versus value across market caps
23:00 Market breadth and advance-decline signals
24:13 Sentiment, fear and greed, and retests
30:00 Breakouts, catalysts, and confirmation
32:00 Sector rotation overview
35:00 Energy, real estate, and rate-sensitive sectors
39:10 Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF strategy
45:00 International and emerging markets
47:36 Gold, silver, and precious metals
51:04 U.S. dollar and currency trends
54:00 Bitcoin and crypto technical outlook
57:12 Key indicators to watch going forward
59:07 Long-term takeaways for investors