You Can’t Model What You Don’t Understand

In this episode, Thomas Li welcomes back investor and portfolio manager Josh Burwick to unpack the renewed focus on tariffs following Trump’s declaration of April 2nd as “Liberation Day.” They explore why tariffs hit companies unevenly—especially those in autos and IT hardware—and how uncertainty around supply chains, manufacturing shifts, and geopolitical exposure is sending shockwaves through the market.

Josh shares first-hand experience navigating tariffs as a former CFO, while Thomas breaks down why traditional models aren’t built to account for geographic revenue or fixed asset exposure—and why that needs to change fast. The conversation covers:

• Why tariffs are more complex than they seem
• How supply chain shifts aren't as simple as “moving the factory”
• The hidden modeling risks for analysts
• Why guidance revisions and multiple compression may just be beginning
• And how Daloopa’s data helps analysts better quantify what’s next

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With market volatility rising and uncertainty reigning, this is a must-listen for anyone trying to model through the noise.