Why we consistently underestimate everything? The planning fallacy.

Ever told yourself, “I’ll get that done by next week”… and then watched it drift?

This episode explores a very human tendency we all experience, whether we’re building a business, writing a book, or just trying to clear the inbox.

After what was meant to be a one-year book project turned into three, this episode unpacks the psychology behind why we consistently underestimate time, effort, and complexity.

And more importantly, how we can design better ways of working around it.

We explore:

• The Planning Fallacy - our tendency to underestimate how long something will take, even when past experience tells us otherwise.
• The Inside View - how we focus on the task itself, rather than learning from similar past experiences.
• Optimism Bias - that we’re wired to believe the future will go better than the past.
• Reference Class Forecasting - how using real-world data from similar projects helps us make better predictions.

So perhaps armed with this we can make better predictions moving forwards. And hopefully the new book, Customer Experience Thinking (out 21st May) will have been worth the wait!

Studies & further reading:

• Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. – Prospect Theory
• Kahneman, D. – Thinking, Fast and Slow
• Buehler, Griffin & Ross – The Planning Fallacy
• Sharot, T. – The Optimism Bias

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