Why Uranium's Next Move Will Be a Permanent Reset, Not a Temporary Cycle

Recording date: 6th January 2026

As uranium investors navigate 2026, Chris Frostad, CEO of Purepoint Uranium, outlined a market characterized by persistent uncertainty but increasingly favorable fundamentals for a sustained price increase.

Price predictions from major financial institutions range widely from $80 to $150, reflecting what Frostad describes as "handwaving" rather than definitive analysis. This cautious approach marks a shift from the "enthusiastic overpromise" of 2019-2023, when many analysts expected dramatic price spikes that failed to materialize as the industry underestimated both accumulated inventory levels and utility patience.

The critical unknown remains global uranium inventory. While estimates suggest 300 million pounds exist, much is effectively immobile—locked in Chinese and Indian strategic reserves or tied up in the fuel cycle. Utilities maintain two-to-three-year working inventories, explaining their measured approach to contracting despite production falling below consumption.

Frostad emphasized uranium's unique supply-side constraints. Unlike other commodities, production cannot quickly respond to higher prices due to technical complexity, regulatory requirements, and multi-year development timelines. Mills optimize chemistry for specific ores and cannot simply increase throughput. Even established producers like Cameco and Kazatomprom struggle to meet production targets.

For investors, Frostad recommends focusing on company fundamentals—management quality, jurisdiction, and development stage—rather than attempting to time the uranium price spike. He cautions against overweighting small modular reactor announcements as "white noise," suggesting instead that investors monitor term contract announcements for concrete market signals.

Looking ahead, Frostad anticipates meaningful market movement within 6-18 months as utility buffers deplete. Critically, he expects a price "reset" to a new, higher plateau rather than a traditional commodity cycle, reflecting structural supply challenges that will require sustained elevated pricing to incentivize new production.

The message for 2026: focus on quality companies with sound fundamentals while maintaining patience for the anticipated price reset in late 2026 or early 2027.

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