In this compelling episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview Shannon Brandao – attorney, Mandarin speaker, and founder of the China Boss Substack – to explore China's expanding influence even as America appears to turn inward. Broadcasting from Europe, Brandao delivers her unique insights on Chinese Communist Party strategy, economic challenges, and geopolitical ambitions.

Brandao emphasizes that perception easily becomes reality, in that when America appears to withdraw, China seizes opportunities to expand influence through economic leverage and promises of stability. This directly impacts Indo-Pacific supply chains controlling critical minerals, batteries, and essential products that Americans depend on daily.

Rejecting claims that China seeks only regional stability, Brandao explains that the Chinese Communist Party operates from a paranoia that requires control to ensure regime survival. Under Xi Jinping, ruling "red aristocrats" fear vulnerability to external powers, and even successful Chinese entrepreneurs like Jack Ma, leading to enterprise nationalization and tight party control over innovation.

While China faces economic headwinds, including debt, demographic challenges, and declining GDP, Xi Jinping has successfully modernized the military. Still, China's unreliable economic statistics mask systemic problems, with Communist Party interference undermining potential innovation, even despite a tremendous national talent base.

China exercises strength in strategic sectors—solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, shipbuilding, and artificial intelligence—through massive subsidies, but this creates a chronic overcapacity problem. Local government subsidies benefit politically connected firms like Huawei, creating quasi-monopolies across industries: steel, aluminum, cement, telecom gear, plastics, fertilizers, construction equipment, etc. Endemic corruption further dilutes programs, with billions disappearing from AI innovation funds.

Companies attempting to leave China face complex challenges. When signaling departure, employees report to Party and government officials, triggering shakedowns through exit bans and extortionate demands. Recent surveys show companies staying but withholding investment and hedging elsewhere. For firms that do leave, repatriating profits and protecting intellectual property depends entirely on relationships with local government officials.

Asked for what advice she would give to President Trump before meeting Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Summit, Brandao warns that Xi will use flattery while masking the geopolitical reality, and that failing to press American interests in the Indo-Pacific creates vacuums China eagerly fills.

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In this special, in-person episode, host Ray Powell sits down with James Minnich, professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies and editor of the Center’s new book Edge of Competition: Disruption, Division, and Competition in the Indo-Pacific. Recorded in APCSS’ studios in Hawaii, they dive deep into the region's most pressing geopolitical challenges, exploring how disruption, division, and competition are reshaping global security and economics.

James shares insights from the book, highlighting why the Indo-Pacific matters to everyone—from Taiwan Strait tensions and South China Sea disputes to the rise of multipolar dynamics involving China, the US, India, and ASEAN. They discuss whether we’ve reached "peak China," globalization's double-edged sword, ASEAN centrality, spheres of influence and the need for narrative warfare to counter malign influence operations. Plus, James recounts a story from his time at the UN Command Military Armistice Commission in South Korea, blending negotiation tactics with real-world security operations.

Whether you're tracking US-China relations, maritime security in East Asia, or broader Indo-Pacific geopolitics, this episode unpacks the ongoing disruptions that are already impacting global trade, technology, and stability. Don't miss this expert analysis on Taiwan, Korean Peninsula security, and strategies for resilience in a competitive world.

Key Topics Covered:

• Disruption in the Indo-Pacific: Peak China debates, Taiwan's semiconductor dominance, and globalization's risks.
• Division and Multipolarity: India's role, ASEAN communities of interest, and the pitfalls of spheres of influence.
• South China Sea escalations, South Korea's strategic clarity, and commanding the narrative against political warfare.
• Mastering the clock, weaponizing resilience, and proactive information strategies.

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In this thought-provoking episode, we're joined by renowned Silicon Valley entrepreneur and defense reform advocate Steve Blank in a sweeping conversation on Pentagon innovation, the U.S.-China technological rivalry, and what it takes for democracies to outpace authoritarian competitors.

Key Highlights & Takeaways:

Diagnosing U.S. Innovation Stagnation: Steve dissects why the once dominant U.S. defense sector, long-dominated by the big “primes”, got overtaken by bureaucratic inertia—contrasted with China’s highly focused whole-of-nation approach. He examines how factors such as lobbying, revolving doors, and outmoded acquisition systems have played their parts in hampering adaptation to new threats.

Hacking for Defense Origins: Steve unpacks how the “get out of the building” lean startup method moved from Silicon Valley to challenging national security problem-solving, birthing the global Hacking for Defense movement that started at Stanford but is now in dozens of universities worldwide.

From “Innovation Theater” to Outcomes: The conversation critiques the proliferation of “incubators” unconnected to real acquisition, and highlights how meaningful reform only comes when new tech is linked to actual defense deployment.

What’s Changing: Blank describes major reforms currently underway under the new Trump Administration: scrapping legacy acquisition hurdles, empowering innovation-focused leadership, expanding the Defense Innovation Unit, and setting new strategic priorities.

Politics and Semiconductors: Steve provides a unique take on the CHIPS Act, Taiwan’s semiconductor leverage, and the evolution of U.S. “industrial policy” as exemplified by the U.S. government’s taking of a direct stake in the Intel Corporation.

Practical Advice: Steve and the hosts help surface actionable lessons: embrace private-sector speed, connect innovation directly to field outcomes, and learn from adversaries who now copy America’s best ideas and occasionally outpace them.

SeaLight Targeted by Beijing: Steve and Ray banter about how Ray’s innovation project inspired by Hacking for Defense blossomed into the SeaLight phenomenon, and how its success in illuminating China’s “gray zone” activities got both of them targeted by Beijing’s propaganda machine.

This essential episode illuminates how democracies can survive and thrive amid global tech rivalry, and what must change if the U.S. hopes to remain a leader in security and defense innovation.

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In this critical episode, host Jim Carouso welcomes two leading experts on the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) agreement to examine whether the landmark trilateral security partnership can deliver on its promises four years after its launch. Charlie Edel, inaugural Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Abe Denmark, senior fellow at CSIS and a former DOD official who helped implement AUKUS, join to discuss their new report, "The AUKUS Inflection: Seizing the Opportunity to Deliver Deterrence."

The conversation dives deep into five fundamental challenges threatening AUKUS’ success:

• Submarine production bottlenecks plague the U.S. industrial base, with maintenance backlogs keeping 25% of attack submarines out of the water.

• Sovereignty questions have emerged as Washington reportedly seeks Australian operational commitments for future contingencies.

• Australia faces the massive challenge of building a nuclear submarine workforce from scratch—requiring 20,000 new skilled workers in a country with virtually no civilian nuclear industry.

• AUKUS “Pillar 2” technology cooperation lacks focus and marquee deliverables despite bureaucratic progress on export controls and information sharing.

•⁠⁠ Timeline pressures mount as critics question whether AUKUS capabilities will arrive too late for current deterrence needs, with Australian submarine construction not beginning until 2040.

The experts propose concrete solutions: appointing AUKUS special representatives reporting directly to leaders in all three countries; creating an AUKUS visa system for seamless researcher mobility; establishing trilateral congressional oversight mechanisms; producing annual progress reports for transparency and accountability; and concentrating Pillar 2 efforts on autonomy, long-range strike and integrated missile defense rather than spreading resources across quantum computing and other emerging technologies that lawmakers struggle to understand.

Denmark emphasizes that AUKUS should be viewed as additive rather than subtractive to existing capabilities, with Australian maintenance facilities and industrial contributions helping get more U.S. submarines operational faster. The discussion also touches on recent diplomatic engagements, including Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles' meetings in Washington amid ongoing U.S. reviews of the partnership.

Both experts stress that while AUKUS faces significant implementation challenges, failure would damage U.S. credibility, weaken deterrence, and embolden adversaries. Success requires immediate course corrections, increased funding, and sustained political commitment across all three democracies to deliver meaningful capabilities for Indo-Pacific security.

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In the milestone 100th episode of "Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?", co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso celebrate their podcast’s century mark with a fast-paced, insightful, and at times humorous look back at some of their most memorable moments, guests, and listener interactions. Without a guest this week, Ray and Jim turn the spotlight on themselves, their audience, their incredible slate of past guests, and a region that keeps changing the strategic map.

The hosts set the tone for a reflective and dynamic show, diving into listener emails and social media comments that illustrate the podcast’s loyal following from locations across the globe. Ray and Jim revisit some of the most interesting, provocative, quirky and timely lines from prior guests--including former US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, U.S. Pacific Air Forces Commander General Kevin Schneider, former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, President Surangel Whipps of Palau, former U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral Phil Davidson, and sitting Philippine Secretary of Defense Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro--challenging each other to recall who said what and why those remarks matter in today’s Indo-Pacific landscape.

A central theme is the evolving nature of U.S. strategy, from discussions of "spheres of influence" and the shift in national security focus to debates over U.S. credibility and engagement in regions beyond the Indo-Pacific. The hosts analyze how once-standard priorities such as the rules-based order and extended U.S. presence are now questioned domestically and abroad. Listener comments prompt discussion of perceptions of America across the region, concerns over interference, and the shifting balance of great power influence. The episode highlights President Whipps’ steadfast support for Taiwan in the face of Chinese economic inducements--a striking example of Indo-Pacific agency and risk-taking in the current geopolitical climate.

Memorable moments include insights from Secretary Teodoro on the critical role of the rules-based order for smaller states, self-deprecating tales of military karaoke anxiety from General Schneider, and a glancing critique of U.S. foreign policy “whiplash,” recalling both Afghanistan and Vietnam withdrawals. The podcast’s ability to draw high-profile guests and engage in candid, sometimes irreverent dialogue is evident as the hosts reminisce. Woven through the humor and storytelling is a serious undercurrent about U.S. credibility, PRC aggression, alliance management, and the centrality of the Indo-Pacific in global affairs.

The hosts close with tributes to listeners, their inimitable producer, Ian Ellis-Jones, and their gratitude for reaching 100 episodes amidst rapidly growing listenership--now surpassing 40,000 subscribers across all platforms. As always, we encourage feedback and celebrate our incredible audience, and promise to continue featuring the perspectives and stories that matter most to Indo-Pacific watchers.

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In this compelling episode, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome lead global security analyst for Washington Post Intelligence Josh Rogin, who explores the escalating tensions and complexities behind the dramatic recent breakdown in U.S.-India relations. The episode zeroes in on the significant diplomatic and very personal rift that has emerged between the two leaders, Donald Trump and Narendra Modi, and unpacks the broader strategic implications for Indo-Pacific stability.

Rogin gives a reporter’s analysis of the core issues driving the U.S.-India split, including Prime Minister Modi’s recent trip to Beijing for meetings with some of America’s biggest rivals. This shift signals India’s resistance to U.S. pressure for a trade deal it deems unfavorable. Despite Modi’s previous close rapport with President Trump, contentious issues—such as Trump’s tariff threats and bold proclamations about his role in India's recent conflict with Pakistan—have frozen negotiations and strained bilateral ties to the breaking point.

The discussion highlights the internal U.S. political dynamics behind the breakdown, pointing out the absence of India experts in the president’s inner circle and the dominance of transactional diplomacy focused on short-term deals rather than sustained strategic partnerships. Rogin emphasizes that the rupture is deeply personal between Trump and Modi, with consequences extending beyond bilateral relations to affect the entire Indo-Pacific geopolitical landscape.

Listeners gain valuable insights into how tariff policies, trade conflicts, and diplomatic miscommunications have undermined 25 years of efforts to integrate India more closely with Western alliances. The episode also examines how this strain jeopardizes multilateral cooperation frameworks like the Quad, complicating efforts to present a united front against China’s growing influence in the region.

The hosts take advantage of Josh’s long experience covering Japan to explore Tokyo’s leadership challenges in sustaining regional cooperation within the Quad framework and balancing domestic political pressures with larger strategic goals.

This episode delivers a nuanced and timely examination of why the U.S.-India relationship is vital for Indo-Pacific security, trade, and diplomacy—the potential unraveling of which could have profound global repercussions. Ideal for policy experts, business leaders, and anyone interested in international relations, this episode offers a thoughtful analysis of the personal, political, and strategic forces shaping the future of U.S.-India ties and the broader Indo-Pacific region.

Tune in for an engaging conversation that unpacks the personal disputes and political complexities defining one of the most critical alliances of the 21st century.

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In this deep-dive episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by Matthew Zolnowski, former Special Advisor at the U.S. Department of Defense and President of Greyfriars LLC, for an expert exploration of critical minerals and rare earth elements in the context of U.S.-China strategic competition. As tensions escalate in the Indo-Pacific, they examine why these "rocks" are essential building blocks for both military weapon systems and the civilian economy.

Critical Minerals vs. Rare Earths: Understanding the Difference

Matt breaks down the distinction between critical minerals (50+ commodities spanning the periodic table from antimony to zirconium) and rare earth elements (those mysterious bottom rows of the periodic table you never had to learn). He explains China's dominant position in heavy rare earth processing, particularly for permanent magnets used in defense applications, while noting that light rare earths like cerium and lanthanum—used in petroleum refining and glass polishing—remain more accessible from domestic sources like California's Mountain Pass mine.

Stockpiling, Strategy, and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

The discussion reveals concerning gaps in U.S. defense procurement, including how electronic components bypass normal sourcing requirements, allowing Chinese rare earth magnets into submarines through hard drives, while direct magnet purchases require allied sourcing. Zolnowski details the $2 billion stockpile expansion and explains how stockpiles "buy time" rather than widgets—bridging the gap between crisis onset and Defense Production Act responses.

Industrial Policy vs. Market Forces

Ray and Jim probe the tension between America's traditional free-market approach and emerging industrial policy, examining deals like the MP Materials contract with its $150 million heavy rare earth separation line and EBITDA guarantees. Matt argues this represents uncharted territory, fundamentally breaking with traditional government-industry relationships as the U.S. grapples with China's strategic dominance in processing and price manipulation.

Australia, Allies, and Alternative Strategies

The hosts explore why U.S.-Australia collaboration on critical minerals has remained limited despite Australia's "periodic table on a plate" capabilities, with Zolnowski noting regulatory barriers that only recently opened Defense Production Act eligibility to Australian companies. He advocates for commodity-specific strategies rather than broad critical minerals policies, suggesting successful models like heavy mineral sands operations that diversify beyond single-commodity dependence.

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In this urgent bonus episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso return to discuss the sharp re-escalation at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea following the highly publicized Chinese naval collision at Scarborough Shoal on August 11, 2025. Drawing from satellite imagery, open-source information, and media reports, they analyze China’s deployment of an armed maritime “swarm” near the BRP Sierra Madre, including coast guard cutters, maritime militia vessels, and rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs) equipped with mounted weapons.

China’s Escalation and Swarming Tactics

Ray details how, just a day after the collision, China shifted significant assets from Mischief Reef to Second Thomas Shoal, amassing a force that now includes coast guard ships, maritime militia vessels, and armed RHIBs maneuvering alarmingly close to the Philippine military outpost. This “swarming” not only serves as a physical blockade but also as psychological intimidation through water cannon drills and propaganda operations.

Historical and Strategic Context

The BRP Sierra Madre has symbolized Philippine sovereignty at the shoal since being deliberately grounded in 1999, which lies within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone. Despite China’s extensive militarization of neighboring Mischief Reef and other features, they have yet to dislodge this single ship—a continuous thorn in Beijing’s nine-dash line claims and a longtime flashpoint for maritime confrontation.

Provocation, Deterrence, and International Implications

Jim and Ray explore the strategic calculus behind China’s move, interpreting it as a probe aimed at provoking a Philippine misstep to justify more forceful measures, such as seizure or siege of the outpost. Philippine forces remain strictly instructed to exercise restraint, aware of the potentially explosive consequences. The episode places these events within a broader geopolitical framework, including rising tensions in U.S.-Taiwan relations, the recent Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage, and emerging uncertainties in U.S. alliances across Asia.

What’s Next: Risks and Responses

The hosts weigh the possibility of China demanding new concessions to allow future Philippine resupply missions, emphasizing that a full siege would be catastrophic and globally indefensible. Given the rusted state of the Sierra Madre and its irreplaceable symbolic value, any disruption to resupply could be a tipping point. They also assess the credibility of U.S. treaty commitments and freedom of navigation operations as signals of deterrence or escalation.

Anecdote on Summit Diplomacy

On a lighter note, Ray offers a “there I was” story from President Obama’s 2016 visit to Vietnam, where a meticulously planned official lunch was upended for an impromptu meal with Anthony Bourdain, which became the headline for the visit.

Why Listen?

A definitive update and expert analysis on the mounting crisis in the South China Sea, China’s maritime gray-zone tactics and their implications for Philippine sovereignty, and Indo-Pacific alliances and security dynamics.

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