Why 2026 could be a surprisingly strong year for CRE credit

What does the CRE credit landscape really look like heading into 2026? Cole Perry is joined by Andy Boettcher, Head of Research at Trepp, to pull back the curtain on bank lending behavior, refinancing risk, extensions, and why fears around the “maturity wall” may be overstated. Drawing on decades of experience from the Federal Reserve to today’s lending data, Andy offers a seasoned, data-driven outlook on where CRE credit is stabilizing, and where it’s still sorting itself out.

Key Moments:

01:53 Andy’s Background and career journey

07:06 From the Fed to Trepp

09:53 Macro and CRE market analysis

16:34 Bank lending vs. CMBS market

25:53 2026 forecast and predictions

27:45 Final thoughts and industry wishes

Resources Mentioned:

Andy Boettcher - https://www.linkedin.com/in/aboettcher/

Trepp - https://www.trepp.com/

Federal Reserve H.8 Report – Weekly Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm

Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/

Atlanta Fed GDPNow - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

New York Fed Staff Nowcast - https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

What CREFC Miami revealed about CRE debt markets in 2026 - https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/what-crefc-miami-revealed-about-cre-debt-markets-in-2026

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