When the Fed says they are dropping rates next month, what is really happening today

Great question. Markets don’t usually wait until the Fed actually cuts rates to react — they move in advance, based on expectations.

Here’s how it works:

Forward-looking nature of markets – Bond yields, stock prices, and mortgage rates are influenced by what investors think will happen, not just what has already happened. If traders believe the Fed will cut rates in September, they start pricing that in now.

Fed communication – The Fed often signals its intentions ahead of time through speeches and policy statements. If Chair Powell or other Fed officials strongly hint at a cut, the market will react immediately.

Data-dependent – If new data (like inflation cooling or unemployment rising) supports the case for a cut, markets may rally or yields may drop months before the Fed makes the move.

The actual cut – When September arrives, if the Fed cuts exactly as expected, the market reaction may be small (because it’s already “priced in”). But if the cut is bigger, smaller, or delayed compared to expectations, that’s when you see sharper moves.

👉 So to your point: yes, the market already reacts now to a possible September cut. By the time the Fed announces it, most of the impact could be baked in.

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