What Transaction Data Reveals About Our Economic Future

Consumer spending has weakened across the board in recent weeks, with fast fashion, resale, and off-price retail emerging as relative winners in an otherwise concerning landscape. Michael Gunther, VP and head of insights at Consumer Edge, shares data-driven perspectives on current consumer trends and what they indicate about the broader economic picture.

• Recent transaction data shows spend patterns weakening across industries during the past 4-5 weeks
• Winners in this environment include fast fashion, resale markets, and discount retail—categories typically associated with economic pullbacks
• Corporate earnings calls increasingly mention tariffs and "geopolitical uncertainty" as key concerns
• Unlike pandemic-era pullbacks, there's no pent-up demand waiting to be unleashed as travel and entertainment spending has normalized
• High-income consumers and younger demographics are maintaining relatively stronger spending, though still showing signs of trading down
• Companies successfully targeting these stronger demographic segments (Hollister, Shein, Cartier, MyTheresa) are better positioned to weather the downturn
• Sustainability remains a driver of consumer choices alongside price sensitivity, particularly in the resale market
• Key indicators to watch include transaction data across discretionary categories and grocery price inflation, especially in tariff-impacted categories