What Top Economists are Forecasting for 2026 - RAOT October 12th 2025

The Wall Street Journal published the results from its quarterly survey of economists this week. Overall, the group projected the economy will continue to grow, unemployment will remain low, but job growth will be weak in the near term.

Focusing on the last point, 57 economists submitted their U.S. job growth projections for the next 12 months. The average for the group was approximately 50,000 jobs created per month, or 600,000 total jobs for the next year. Other than during the pandemic, annual job gains have typically been at 2 million or higher since the end of 2011, but it has been below the level practically all this year.

The unemployment rate, which was last reported at 4.3%, is projected to stay in the range of 4.2% to 4.5% the next couple of years. While that is generally good news, the amount of hiring will be limited due to the size of the labor force.

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