Is Bitcoin's four-year cycle still intact, and what does that mean for the next six months?

In this episode, I sit down with The Rational Root to break down where we are in Bitcoin's cycle, why on-chain data is flashing bear market signals despite Bitcoin holding up through the Iran war, and what the bottom formation could look like from here.

We discuss the shift from retail hype to institutional adoption, why OTC buying from ETFs and treasury companies dampened this cycle's price action, how gold and AI stole Bitcoin's mindshare, and whether passive flows from the likes of Saylor could prevent another leg down. Root walks through his key on-chain charts and explains why he thinks there's still a probability of one more drop before Bitcoin starts its next move up.

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"Our entire financial system will blow up without their factories, without their oil. And they know that. So they can wait."

Luke Gromen is a macroeconomic analyst, investor and founder of FFTT.

In this episode, we get into whether the Iran war exposed a far bigger geopolitical shift than most people realise, why Luke thinks missiles and drones may have changed global power forever, and what all of this means for oil, markets, Bitcoin and the future of the dollar system.

We also get into why Bitcoin held up better than expected during the conflict, why Luke still thinks risk assets face serious danger ahead, and how AI could trigger a major credit event faster than almost anyone expects.

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Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny

Luke Gromen: https://x.com/LukeGromen

"Statistically, right now, we are basically at the bottom. This is as cheap as Bitcoin gets."

Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of Crypto Voices and one of the leading voices on Bitcoin's power law and global money supply data.

In this episode, we dig into why Bitcoin's quantile regression is showing we're scraping the absolute floor, why the four-year cycle is completely intact despite everyone calling it dead last year, and what the Fed's balance sheet actually tells us about where Bitcoin goes next.

In this episode:

• The Power Law: Why Bitcoin at $63k represents the cheapest level relative to trend in its entire history, and what the quantile regression is actually showing

• The Four-Year Cycle: How the 2024-2025 price action perfectly follows prior cycles despite the "cycle is dead" narrative.

• The 550k Projection: What the power law projects for Bitcoin by 2029-2030.

THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS:

ANCHORWATCH

BLOCKWARE

LEDN

BITKEY

SWAN

CLUB ORANGE

FOLLOW:

Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny

Matthew Mezinskis: https://x.com/1basemoney